The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants cap off a five-game getaway day slate, and we're offering our top Diamondbacks vs. Giants player props for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
As is the case on most Thursdays in Major League Baseball, we have only a handful of games on tap. However, what they lack in quantity, they make up for in quality.
The day concludes with an NL West showdown between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants, with first pitch expected for 9:45 p.m. ET from Oracle Park. The home side is the consensus betting favorite.
Taking the hill for the home team is Giants right-hander Logan Webb, who's among the favorites by our MLB Cy Young odds. He enters this contest with a 3.80 ERA over four starts, though his lack of strikeouts is alarming.
The visitors will send Ryne Nelson to the mound, who continues to experience growing pains in his second full season in the majors. He owns a woeful 5.27 ERA through three starts.
Will Arizona's impressive offense do damage in the Bay, or will Webb and the Giants win the first contest of this four-game series?
Here are our best Diamondbacks vs. Giants player prop prediction and MLB picks (odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Diamondbacks vs. Giants player props
- Jorge Soler to record more total bases than Corbin Carroll (+120 via bet365) ??
- Ketel Marte Over 0.5 home runs (+870 via FanDuel) ???
- Logan Webb Over 4.5 strikeouts (-135 via bet365) ??
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Diamondbacks vs. Giants expert picks
We begin our player props with a tasty little head-to-head matchup. Sure, Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is among the contenders by the MLB MVP odds in the NL, but that doesn't mean we can't fade him once in a while.
Carroll is off to a slow start at the plate this season despite walking more than twice as often as he strikes out. The issue is that the balls he hits are softer than a luxury three-ply toilet paper. Carroll's average exit velocity is sitting at 83.1 mph (third percentile), and his hard-hit rate is only 23.1% (sixth percentile). As a result, his OPS is just .641 through 18 games.
Meanwhile, Jorge Soler has been far better despite also being off to a relatively slow start. He owns a .783 OPS and 122 wRC+, though his batted-ball data leaves much to be desired, too.
The value here is in who each hitter will face when this game begins, as Carroll is forced to deal with the ground-ball machine that is Webb, while Soler gets a much more enticing matchup against Nelson.
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I'm not quite sure why Ketel Marte's home run odds are this long, but I'll gladly take them. Marte is tearing the cover off the ball so far this season, and he already has five homers to show for it.
Marte owns a 93rd-percentile average exit velocity (93.6 mph) and 95th-percentile hard-hit rate (55.2%), and his Statcast page is gushing with red.
Based on Marte's home run projection for Thursday's game, we're getting nearly 45% positive expected value on this bet, as FanDuel's odds come with only a 10% implied probability.
Most of our other best sports betting sites are hovering around +750 to back Marte to go yard against the Giants, so be sure to use our exclusive FanDuel promo code and get this price before it's gone!
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We close out this trio of player props with Webb's strikeout Over. No, you didn't read that wrong, we're backing the Over on a pitcher who has only 17 punchouts through 23 2/3 innings this season, against the team that strikes out at the lowest rate in the league.
Webb is just different gravy at Oracle Park compared to when he pitches on the road. For his career, he's averaging 8.55 K/9 across 336 2/3 innings at home, with a 2.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Meanwhile, he's managed just 7.86 K/9 in away games to go along with a bloated 4.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Now, trends are silly, but a 674-inning sample size is fairly decent. The projections support that data, too, as Webb is projected to record 5.4 strikeouts on Thursday. Based on that total, we're getting roughly 7.5% positive expected value on this bet through these -135 odds at bet365.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is already as short as -171 to back the Over on this prop.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants game info & odds
- When: Thursday, April 18
- First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, Calif.
- How to watch: NBCS-BA
- Favorite: Giants (-170 via Betway)
Diamondbacks-Giants player props made Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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