The fourth of Saturday's four Divisional Series openers is an NL West showdown pitting the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and we have you covered with our best Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers picks for Game 1 of the NLDS based on the best MLB odds.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have gone from a team that lost 110 games just two years ago to sweeping the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers by a combined 11-5 score in the wild-card round after entering the playoffs on a four-game losing skid.
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the NL West for the 10th time in 11 seasons and face a Diamondbacks team they beat eight out of 13 times in the regular season.
Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers pick: NLDS Game 1
The Diamondbacks did well to get out of their wild-card series against the Brewers in two games, as they are now lined up to throw Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen in four of the five potential games (each of their second starts would be on short rest) if needed. That cannot be understated, as they have no other healthy starting pitcher who posted an ERA under 5.00 in the regular season.
Los Angeles will surely be a popular play given Kelly's lack of success against the Dodgers. Over the last three seasons, Arizona is 1-12 in 13 games against Los Angeles when Kelly has pitched, and the righty himself is 0-10. In that span against 304 batters, he pitched to a 5.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and allowed a .915 OPS. However, Kelly seemed to start turning a corner against the NL West rivals this year, as he did not allow a run in two of his four appearances.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles's steep moneyline odds reflect more of Clayton Kershaw's career accolades than what he has accomplished recently. The fact is that Kershaw was turned into a one-start-a-week pitcher after averaging just 89 mph on his pitches over four September starts. And while the southpaw has been good at holding baserunners over his career (85 stolen bases allowed versus 75 caught stealing in 425 career games), the longer his pitches take to get to the plate now, the more a Diamondbacks team that ranked second in the majors with 166 stolen bases will take advantage.
This is a three-star play, as Kershaw is barely over .500 (13-12) with a 4.22 career postseason ERA, and we believe in the rest-versus-rust factor that should give Arizona an advantage early in this series while the Dodgers will have had six days off. We are limiting this play to the first five innings, as Los Angeles has a significant bullpen edge with an ERA and xF IP that ranked third in the regular season, while Arizona ranked 18th and 17th, respectively.
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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +160 | OFF | +145 | OFF | +170 |
There is much better value to be had at bet365 for their first five innings moneyline odds than at BetMGM and DraftKings. The unique thing about its +170 price is that it has the same +170 odds for the full-game moneyline, whereas typically, backing a team to lead after five innings results in shorter odds.
bet365 also offers three-inning moneyline odds, which are shorter at Arizona +155.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers odds
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers odds analysis
BetMGM is the lowest on Arizona at +155 odds (Los Angeles is -190), while Caesars and bet365 are on the high end at +170. The line moved away from Arizona at FanDuel, as the D-Backs opened at +154 and reached +164 less than 12 hours later. The Diamondbacks are 6-0 in their last six games as underdogs against NL opponents.
BetMGM and BetRivers are the only shops offering a total of 7.5, while all competing sportsbooks are at 8. All of our best sports betting apps with a total of 8 are juiced to the Under, with the lowest being Caesars and DraftKings at -120. Fifty-eight percent of the early wagers have backed the Over.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 7, at 9:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- How to watch: TBS
- Weather: 87 degrees, 2% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph S
Diamondbacks-Dodgers pick made 10/6/2023 at 6:12 a.m. ET.
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