The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 86-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-75 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 4-0, 4.00 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 7-8, 4.49 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 35 games (+37.10 Units / 106% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+21.10 Units / 42% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+11.90 Units / 90% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.80 Units / 37% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+36.80 Units / 230% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+17.90 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 98 games (+31.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 97 games (+21.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 away games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 154 games (+10.65 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 150 games (+10.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 85 of their last 154 games (+6.04 Units / 3% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 79-75 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -1.43% ROI).

• 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 6.22% ROI
• 88-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.15 Units / 11.81% ROI
• 61-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.55 Units / -21.12% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-75 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.52% ROI).

• 88-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.65 Units / 5.42% ROI
• 79-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.4 Units / 4.99% ROI
• 65-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.1 Units / -12.97% ROI

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (173/278) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

The last hit on a Merrill Kelly changeup was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 28.

Merrill Kelly has located his breaking pitches away 73% of the time (145/199) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (33/48) against Merrill Kelly’s changeup this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (606/1,261) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale this season is 384.4 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 397.9

The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 398.5

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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