The Arizona Diamondbacks (+185) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Saturday, April 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-3 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 1-0, 1.80 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried 0-0, 40.54 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 64.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
• Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Spencer Strider has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)
• Sam Hilliard has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Kevin Pillar has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 6-2 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 37.62% ROI).

• 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -6.4% ROI
• 5-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 16.67% ROI
• 3-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -25.15% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-3 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).

• 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 7.08% ROI
• 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 45.38% ROI
• 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -50.75% ROI

Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brandon Pfaadt has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 93% (14/15) of opposing batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt has located his fastball inside 61% of the time (31/51) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (41/139) against Brandon Pfaadt since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Brandon Pfaadt allowed a slugging percentage of .643 (191 Total Bases / 297 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .503 — second Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .445 (204 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .724 — 98th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (163 balls in play) — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 80.6

26 of Max Fried’s 106 breaking pitch strikeouts (24%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.

Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .495 (389 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: .750 — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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