Determining the NFL's true road-field performance
After last week’s revealing of my True Home Field Advantage Ratings in college and pro football, I now move on to analyzing the road performance levels of teams.
Reiterating what I stated last week regarding the importance of understanding how to assign home and road field points in football, anyone still assigning the base 3 to 3.5 points for home field for every game at either level is making a gargantuan mistake. This not only leads to errors in handicapping individual games on any given week, but it also compounds itself in the building of team power ratings, which take into account schedule strength and where a team has played its games. Because of this risk, my experience on both sides of the counter has led me to build and maintain team-specific home and road field ratings. These are built into the formulas I use to calculate the Power, Effective Strength, and Bettors Ratings in PSW and on VSiN.com.
I explained the many reasons as to why certain teams have more definitive home-field advantage than others. The same can be said for teams’ performance levels on the road. In my opinion, coaching/preparation level is the leading factor for teams who play best on the road. These teams typically have solid defenses and reliable quarterback play. The other factor that might not be as clearly defined, I feel that a lot of teams that don’t enjoy a massive home-field edge in atmosphere have a tendency to play better on the road as their performance level is more consistent across the board, and not as influenced by game location. Perhaps having more veteran leadership on a team always plays an important role.