The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 73-87 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 75-85 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Adrian Sampson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 away games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -6.2% ROI).
- 73-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -2.42% ROI
- 64-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.3 Units / -15.48% ROI
- 83-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +13 Units / 7.38% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-85 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -9.22% ROI).
- 61-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -12.97% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.8 Units / -7.79% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.62% ROI
Javier Assad: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (7/31) against Javier Assad — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 96th Percentile.
Luis Cessa: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has struck out just 17% (54/315) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 20% (5 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 61% (357/581) in two strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — ninth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 60% of the time (349/579) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.