Week 17 Thursday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) and the Tennessee Titans. It's one of the stranger matchups we've seen in a long list of unfulfilling primetime games this season. The Titans head into the matchup with outcome having no bearing on their playoffs hopes. Win or lose, the division will be settled in Week 18 vs Jacksonville. As a result, HC Mike Vrabel is expected to sit many key starters, including All Pro running back Derrick Henry. On the Cowboys side, they also have little to play for, but there is an out side chance they could steal the NFC East from Philadelphia if they drop the last two games. Tony Pollard hasn't practiced all week and could be sat Thursday night. This was one of the trickier games to handicap all year as the motivations and short week add another layer of complexity to the player props. However, I feel good about the two picks below + a Same Game Parlay that is worth considering for higher odds.
Check out our full game analysis here.
Dalton Schultz over 38.5 receiving yards (-114)
From one Tight End to another. Schultz has one of the more favorable matchups in a game filled with uncertainty. The Cowboys TE gets the 25th ranked defense vs TE in DVOA, allowing 8 targets for 66 yards per game. Schultz has been adding explosive plays to his resume these last few weeks, logging a 20+ yard reception in 3 of the last 4. It will help that he faces a Titans defense that is second worst in the league to explosive plays vs TEs. The average at least 1 per game and have given up 16 on the season! I opted for the total yards play vs the longest reception (16.5) as it has had a higher frequency of hitting this season, but the longest reception can be considered as well if the yards total gets over 40.5. The Titans have given up this line to opposing TEs an astounding 12 times this season. Tony Pollard could miss this game Thursday and that will free up 3-5 targets that will give Schultz a better opportunity to hit this number. 1U