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Two of the most iconic franchises in the NFL meet on Sunday Night Football as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Dallas Cowboys as favorites by the NFL Week 5 odds.
- Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy is 0-4 in his career against the Steelers in the regular season
- The Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003, the longest active streak in the league
- Pittsburgh is coming off its first loss of the season last week
The Steelers are short home favorites based on the Sunday Night Football odds, but our Cowboys vs. Steelers prediction calls for the underdogs to cover the spread on the road.
Best Cowboys vs. Steelers picks
NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Cowboys +2.5 (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Steelers ???
- Player prop: Justin Fields Under 46.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ????
Cowboys vs. Steelers against the spread prediction
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Based on the line movement throughout the week, it appears there is sharp action on both sides. The spread dipped as low as -1.5 before being bought back to its original number of -2.5 at many of our best NFL betting sites.
Despite Pittsburgh entering with the better record at 3-1, I am backing the more desperate Cowboys team to cover the small spread with our NFL Week 5 predictions. This mirrors Connor Cooper's Dallas selection from earlier in the week with his Cowboys vs. Steelers early picks.
Pittsburgh's defense turned in a disappointing effort on many fronts last week. The Steelers allowed the Indianapolis Colts to convert 53.3% of their third downs. That was nearly double their season average entering the week.
Pittsburgh also allowed back-to-back touchdown drives to begin a game for the first time since Week 8 of 2022, and its pass defense was gashed for big plays. The Steelers a llowed six plays of 15-plus yards after allowing 12 such plays through the first three weeks combined.
The Steelers' defense was praised immensely as the biggest reason for the team's fourth 3-0 start under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh held the Los Angeles Chargers to minus-5 yards and zero points in the second half in a Week 3 win and became the first team to hold its first three opponents to 10 or fewer points since the 2009 Denver Broncos.
However, the Steelers were exposed by Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco last week. It should be put into perspective that Pittsburgh's defensive success through the first three weeks came against Kirk Cousins in his first start since a torn Achilles, rookie Bo Nix, and a hobbled Justin Herbert who likely should have never been under center.
Facing Dak Prescott, who ranked in the top three of the league in completion percentage, TD-INT ratio, Total QBR, and off-target pe rcentage last year will present a whole new issue.
Pittsburgh's 17-0 second-quarter deficit last week was the most recent slow start, but it has been an issue that has plagued the team all season.
Pittsburgh has trailed at the half in three of the first four games, and has averaged five points and 5.1 yards per play in the first half over the last two weeks. The Steelers have also not been able to sustain drives early, converting just one out of every three third downs in the first half.
This is a speculative three-star play, as Prescott is 1-8 ATS as an underdog in his last nine starts. However, opponents that have scored 20-plus points are 22-0 straight up in the last 22 games that Justin Fields has started. Dallas should have enough offense to reach that plateau under McCarthy, whose teams have covered 62% of their games on extended rest over the last 20 years.
The best number and pric e is found at DraftKings, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of +2.5 at less than the standard -110 juice. A $10 winning wager at its -105 odds would pay out $19.52.
Cowboys vs. Steelers player prop
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Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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This is a contrarian play on many fronts given the statistics and trends leading into this game.
Fields' three rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks are tied for the most in the NFL in that span. Meanwhile, Dallas has allowed the third-most rushing attempts to quarterbacks and has allowed a top-four fantasy quarterback in two of the previous three weeks.
However, this is a four-star play given the Cowboys' injuries on the defensive line. Micah Parsons is doubtful with an ankle injury and DeMarcus Lawrence was placed on IR with a foot injury. With those two being the Cowboys' best pass rushers, there will likely not be as much pressure on Fields, so he should be able to stand in the pocket and deliver throws on time instead of needing to escape pressure with his legs.
This line is as low as 45.5 at FanDuel, so Under backers should head to BetMGM to take advantage of the best price and number.
Fields might struggle overall as a rusher, but Rodrigo Villagomez thinks he can still find the end zone in his Justin Fields SNF player props. And on the opposite sideline, Phil Wood makes his best Dak Prescott SNF player prop bets.
Cowboys vs. Steelers odds
See all of this week's NFL odds and NFL scores.
Sunday Night Football game info
- Matchup: Cowboys vs. Steelers
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
- Weather: 66 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SW
- Favorite: Steelers -2.5 (-120 via BetMGM)
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