The Dallas Cowboys (9-7) visit FedEx Field to take on the Washington Commanders (6-9) on Jan. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Landover, MD.
The Cowboys are betting favorites in this Week 18 matchup, with the spread sitting at -13 (-110).
The Cowboys vs. Commanders Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 18 game with 85.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 64.8% confidence.
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Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this Week 18 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dak Prescott has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Michael Gallup has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tony Pollard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 90% ROI)
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- Logan Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys went 9-7 (+1.3 Units / 7.34% ROI).
- Cowboys are 11-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.27% ROI
- Cowboys are 8-8 when betting the Over for -0.8 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Cowboys are 8-8 when betting the Under for -0.8 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders went 6-9 (-3.8 Units / -21.65% ROI).
- Commanders are 4-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.8 Units / -51.19% ROI
- Commanders are 9-7 when betting the Over for +1.3 Units / 7.39% ROI
- Commanders are 7-9 when betting the Under for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 259.2 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys are 8-2 (.800) when not throwing an interception this season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 7 passes this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Cowboys are 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .567.
The Cowboys are 21-5 (.808) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have turned the ball over 54 times since the 2022 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Commanders are winless (0-9) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .458.
The Commanders are winless (0-3) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since Week 14 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .512.
The Commanders are winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Commanders are winless (0-6) vs top 10 offenses this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.