The Dallas Cowboys return to California to face the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football, and our top Cowboys vs. Chargers predictions center on Dallas rebounding from Week 5 drubbing. All our NFL picks are based on the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Dallas' 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football was their largest lopsided loss since 2013. The Cowboys had a minus-three turnover margin, which has been their Achilles heel. They've lost both games when they were on the wrong side of the turnover battle this season.
Los Angeles should benefit from extra following its bye week. The Chargers topped the Las Vegas Raiders 24-17 on the road in their last game in Week 4, and it's worth adding that all four of the Chargers' contests this season have been decided by seven points or fewer.
Here is our best Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction for Monday Night Football, and don't miss our Cowboys-Chargers NFL player props (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Cowboys vs. Chargers prediction: Monday Night Football
The Cowboys no longer rank in the top four of ESPN analytics' rankings of chances to win the NFC, and perhaps rightfully so, as they have proven time and again dating back to the two playoff meetings against the 49ers that they do not belong in the same class as them.
But Dallas is still good, and quarterback Dak Prescott has a proven track record against the non-elite teams in the league.
Based on current standings for 2023 opponents, Prescott is 8-13 in his career against first-place teams (.381 winning percentage), with a 1.2 touchdown to interception ratio, and his team averages 21.5 points per game in those contests. However, against teams anywhere from second to fourth place in their divisions, Prescott has a 56-25 record as a starter (.691 winning percentage), a 3.2 TD-INT ratio, and his teams have averaged 27.9 points per game.
Playing at SoFi Stadium is not the worst road environment in the league, as Chargers fans are often outnumbered by those from the other team at that venue. In addition, playing on turf should benefit Dallas, as the Cowboys are 14-1 on turf since the start of last season (including playoffs) and just 2-7 on grass.
Dallas' eight first downs against San Francisco were tied for the fourth-fewest in franchise history, but the 49ers' defense is in a different stratosphere than the Chargers'.
Meanwhile, a Raiders team not typically known for defense held Justin Herbert to a career-low in passing yards (167) and the lowest completion percentage he's had in a game since 2021 (54.2%). And though it appears likely the team will get back Austin Ekeler, it is unreasonable to expect him to be the same running back who produced over 1,500 scrimmage yards last season in his first action in over a month.
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Cowboys vs. Chargers best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys ML | Cowboys ML | Cowboys ML | Cowboys ML | Cowboys ML |
| -130 | -132 | -130 | -130 | -130 |
Cowboys moneyline backers have their pick of our best sports betting apps, as FanDuel is the only shop that differs from the consensus price of -130 from many of its competitors.
Many will argue that backing Dallas' low -2 spread at -110 odds makes more sense financially. Still, the Chargers have a habit of playing nail-biters every week, so we want to remove the possibility of losing our wager if Dallas wins by one point or pushing if its margin of victory is two points.
Cowboys vs. Chargers odds for Monday Night Football
Cowboys vs. Chargers odds analysis
FanDuel is the only sportsbook as high as Cowboys -2.5, while all other competitors have a spread of -2. DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 all reached -2.5 at some point on Monday afternoon/night, but Chargers backers weighed in and drove the line back down.
Thus, from that line movement, it does not appear likely that the spread ever reaches -3 before kickoff. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five Monday Night Football appearances.
Caesars and bet365 are the only sportsbooks with a total of 51, while all other competitors offer an O/U of 50.5. FanDuel and Caesars were the only two that reached a high of 51.5 on Tuesday, but Under backers got involved at that number and drove the total back down.
Sixty-two percent of the early wagers have backed the Over, despite four of Dallas's last five games in California staying Under the projected total.
Monday Night Football game info
- When: Monday, Oct. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
Cowboys-Chargers prediction made 10/11/2023 at 4:11 p.m. ET
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