A couple of weeks ago I put together an article recalling all of the trend and system information I’ve compiled this season that was in play for NFL Week 15. I received a very good reaction to that article, particularly after Bill Adee published the highlights in one of the morning newsletters that week. Since then, I did a late-season systems piece. However, a number of VSiN readers requested that I do full-season recall thing more often as they insisted it gets difficult to remember all the best info from week to week. In the process, we can miss valuable betting opportunities. I know this because I miss them myself, although prepping for my appearances on the Countdown to Kickoff show with Brent Musburger each Sunday helps.
I love to share this info with viewers, and many parts of it, particularly the bye-week and rematch systems, have once again been very successful in 2022. With that in mind, I am paying tribute to Brent’s show by titling my article in the show’s name this week as we get ready for a huge Week 17 slate of action. Enjoy the analysis and good luck with your Week 17 wagers.
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-17-2 SU but 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in their last 27 tries.
Extreme performances in one week usually produce an opposite reaction the next week. This comes as a result of returns to norms and from oddsmakers’ and bettors’ overreactions. Denver applies for this system in Week 17 after its ugly 51-14 loss as a favorite at the Rams. The Broncos will take on Kansas City after firing their head coach as well.
NFL teams that lost, scored seven points or fewer and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next game, 15-29 SU but 30-14 ATS (68.2%) over the last decade.
These are truly bad offensive performances, and like anything else in the NFL (Not For Long), the pattern doesn’t tend to last long. Oddsmakers intentionally over-adjust to draw in bettors who overreact, and books take home all the winnings. This has already happened a couple of times this season and both teams bounced back well. For this week, the Jets will try to rebound from their ugly loss to the Jaguars last Thursday when they travel to Seattle. New York will also try to reignite its offense by turning back to Mike White at quarterback.
Home underdogs on “Thursday Night Football” have really struggled of late, going 4-14 SU and 6-12 ATS (33%) in their last 18, scoring just 14.7 PPG. In terms of totals, 14 of the last 16 (88%) TNF games featuring a home dog went UNDER.
This week’s Thursday night game will be the fourth straight featuring a road favorite, with Dallas opening as a double-digit favorite at Tennessee. In the last three weeks, the hosts are 1-2 SU and ATS and all three games went Under.
An unusual stat angle: The best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS (30%) against worse defenses on “Sunday Night Football” since ’19.
This angle will be in play for the Sunday night game featuring Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The host Ravens are allowing 18.1 PPG while the Steelers yield 21.3 PPG. Thus, this system suggests playing against the Ravens as the favorite facing their fierce division rival. However, note that the Ravens are on SNF runs of 5-1 SU and 5-2 ATS while the Steelers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 SNF games.
In the last 12 “Monday Night Football” games featuring a home underdog, UNDER the total is 10-1-1 (91%), with games producing just 35.1 PPG.
Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 9-1 SU and ATS (90%) in their last 10 tries.
This week’s MNF game features two of the top teams in the AFC, with Buffalo installed as a 1.5-point favorite at Cincinnati. The Bengals are on a 4-1-2 Under the total run on MNF, scoring just 15.1 PPG. The Bills qualify for the second angle, coming off a 35-13 win at Chicago on Saturday.
From my consecutive week articles in early November highlighting the best and worst NFL teams in terms of their true home/road field performance levels:
Using my formula comparing how much teams have won by at home compared with how much they were supposed to win by based on average power ratings, the top teams for TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE in the NFL over the last 3 1/2 seasons have been:
1. Buffalo +4.8
2. Dallas +4.5
3. Baltimore +3.7
4. Green Bay +3.1
5. New England +3.1
Of these teams, three are at home in Week 17, with Baltimore hosting Pittsburgh, Green Bay hosting Minnesota, and New England hosting Miami.
The teams with the worst TRUE HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE ratings in all of pro football based on their home performances over the last 3 1/2 seasons have been:
1. L.A. Chargers -3.7
2. Arizona -2.9
3. Carolina -1.8
4. N.Y. Jets -1.1
5. Jacksonville -1.0
Only one of these five teams is at home this weekend, the Chargers, who host the Rams in the battle of L.A.
Using my formula comparing how much teams have won on the road compared with how much they were supposed to win by based on average power ratings, the top teams for TRUE ROAD PERFORMANCE in pro football over the last 3 1/2 seasons have been:
1. Baltimore +3.7
2. Buffalo +3.6
3. Kansas City +2.9
4. New Orleans +2.9
From this group, Buffalo travels to Cincinnati for a Monday night game, while New Orleans visits Philadelphia on Sunday.
The teams with the worst TRUE ROAD PERFORMANCE ratings in all of the NFL based on their road statistics over the last 3 1/2 seasons have been:
1. Pittsburgh -5.3
2. N.Y. Jets -4.5
3. Detroit -4.4
4. Cleveland -4.3
5. Jacksonville -4.1
We have a good opportunity to fade four of these teams on Sunday. Pittsburgh is at Baltimore, the Jets are in Seattle, Cleveland goes to Washington, and Jacksonville takes on Houston in a road divisional game.
The following betting angles come from my Week 11 article detailing the performance level of teams in rematch games. There are a season-high seven rematches on the card for Sunday.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Carolina won the first game 21-3
Chicago at Detroit: Detroit won the first matchup 31-30
Denver at Kansas City: K.C. won the initial meeting 34-28
Jacksonville at Houston: Houston won the first time 13-6
Minnesota at Green Bay: Minnesota won in Week 1 23-7
Miami at New England: Miami won the season opener 20-7
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Baltimore won the first meeting 16-14
Best NFL rematch team lately
– Detroit: 10-1 ATS run in rematches
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Carolina: 11-18 SU and 9-20 ATS in rematches since ‘14
– Chicago: 1-10 ATS in last 11
– Denver: 2-14 SU and 5-11 ATS in last 16 tries
Worst NFL ROAD rematch teams lately
– Denver: 10 straight outright road rematch losses (2-8 ATS)
– Jacksonville: ugly 2-16 SU and 7-11 ATS road rematch skid
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
– Chicago: 3-16 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 revenge tries
– Green Bay: 1-6 SU and ATS in last seven revenge attempts
– Pittsburgh: 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS in last 11 revenge, including 0-4 SU and ATS last four
Worst NFL teams in rematches after winning last game lately
– Carolina: six straight outright losses, 2-11 ATS in last 13
High-scoring rematch teams
– Kansas City: 11-3 OVER run
– Minnesota: OVER in last seven rematch games
Rematch System
– Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 36-12 SU and 31-17 ATS (64.6%) in the rematch
This system details a situation in which one team’s season has progressed a lot more favorably than the other despite the earlier loss. This says a lot about the power of momentum in the NFL, as well as how the additional revenge factor can motivate a superior team. This angle will be in play on Sunday for the Jacksonville-Houston game.
Of the 15 top head coaching post-Thanksgiving trends I listed in my Week 12 article, eight are in play this weekend:
* Bill Belichick (New England) is 30-16 OVER the total (67%) vs. conference foes.
The Patriots welcome Miami to Foxboro on Sunday.
* Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh) is 16-16 SU and 12-20 ATS (34%) vs. AFC foes.
The Steelers travel to Baltimore for a Sunday night game.
* Dan Campbell (Detroit) is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS (100%) in divisional games.
The Lions square off with Chicago on Sunday in Detroit.
* Matt LaFleur (Green Bay) is 6-1 SU & ATS (83%) as a favorite of 1 to 7 points.
The Packers are field goal favorites at home versus the Vikings on Sunday.
* Ron Rivera (Washington) is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS (75%) vs. AFC foes.
The Commanders host Cleveland in a key playoff-implicating game on Sunday.
* Doug Pederson (Jacksonville) is 13-4 OVER the total (79%) in road games.
Jacksonville travels to Houston on Sunday for a divisional game.
* Sean McDermott (Buffalo) is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS (100%) as a road favorite.
Buffalo is a small favorite on Monday night in Cincinnati.
* Dennis Allen (New Orleans) is 1-12 SU and 4-8-1 ATS (22%) as an underdog.
New Orleans travels to Philadelphia on Sunday.
These are my starting quarterback betting trends in play for this weekend:
* Jared Goff (DET) is 10-18 SU but 19-9 ATS (68%) with current head coach Dan Campbell.
The Lions host the Bears on Sunday.
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 9-1 SU nd 8-1-1 ATS (89%) as a home favorite.