Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has examined the top Connor Bedard player props, and shares his NHL picks based on the best NHL odds from our best sports betting apps.
Chicago Blackhawks rookie Connor Bedard has seen his ice time and shot volume drop over the past three games. The gauntlet of contenders the Hawks have faced to start the season has been a who's who of headliners in the Stanley Cup odds.
After being neutralized by the Colorado Avalanche last Thursday, Bedard bounced back with a power-play goal against the Vegas Golden Knights to snap a two-game point drought on Saturday.
Still, there's been a huge disparity in his numbers through six games:
| Shots | Attempts | Ice time | Power-play time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First three games | 16 | 30 | 22:05 | 6:01 |
| Last three games | 6 | 11 | 18:32 | 4:35 |
I anticipate Bedard living in the middle of the highlighted numbers moving forward, but statistical peaks and valleys are typically part and parcel with rookies. And, unfortunately for Bedard, his underwhelming supporting cast in the Windy City caps his offensive upside – both nightly and for the long haul.
Tuesday's bout with the 5-0 Boston Bruins is yet another tough draw for the Calder Trophy favorite. Boston has also already had a look at Bedard during its 3-1 season-opening win. The rookie scored the first goal of the game and finished with six shots, though.
Here are our best Connor Bedard player prop predictions for Tuesday's game against the Bruins (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Connor Bedard player props for Tuesday
- Connor Bedard 4+ shots (-144 via FanDuel) ??
- Connor Bedard Under 0.5 points (-105 via BetMGM) ??
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This is a sneaky number through FanDuel because most of our best sports betting apps are listing a two-way total for Bedard's shot prop, while FanDuel has a one-way market.
As a result, we're receiving discounted juice. BetMGM has Bedard priced at -161 to go Over 3.5 shots, for comparison.
Despite the 5-0 record, the Bruins haven't been the possession and shot suppressors they were in years past. It's a small sample, but the Bruins sport a 49.9 Corsi For percentage while allowing the 13th-most shot attempts (61.1) per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
The Boston lineup isn't as strong on paper, either.
I have Bedard projected for 4.6 shots, so my price for this Over would be -168. We're landing a positive expected value of 6% on the -144 FanDuel odds based on my numbers. Additionally, the Pinnacle price for Bedard to go Over 3.5 shots is -165, and I respect and value its NHL trading team as an industry leader.
This bet is all about the noted lack of a skilled supporting cast surrounding Bedard. He's expected to center veterans Nick Foligno and Tyler Johnson against Boston to start Tuesday's game, and while both are proven NHLers, neither Foligno nor Johnson are top-of-the-lineup talents in 2023.
Additionally, while Boston isn't going to maintain a league-leading .953 team save percentage, another tidy showing between the pipes against Chicago wouldn't be a leap of faith.
Chicago has generated the second-fewest high-danger scoring chances (8.04) per 60 minutes at five-on-five, after all.
I have Bedard projected for 0.77 points against Boston on Tuesday, so my price for this Under is -122. The respected Pinnacle number for this prop is -108, so I value landing the -105 BetMGM odds even more.
The difference in the -105 and -122 num bers is a positive expected value of 7%.
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