Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker shares his top Connor Bedard NHL player props for Monday's game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Toronto Maple Leafs. All our NHL picks are based on the NHL odds across our best sports betting apps.
Chicago Blackhawks superstar Connor Bedard has marked the scoresheet in three consecutive games to start his career, and he's set to take on another historic franchise with a date against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday.
The rookie is garnering oodles of eyeballs, and his reach has extended well beyond the NHL fan base. All the attention makes it more difficult to find value in Bedard's player props, and in particular, his shot props have been under the spotlight.
Here are our best Connor Bedard NHL player prop predictions for Monday's game against Toronto (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Connor Bedard NHL player props for Monday
- Connor Bedard Over 3.5 shots (-143 via BetMGM) ???
- Connor Bedard to record 5+ shots (+146 via FanDuel) ?
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Shooters shoot, and Bedard is logging huge minutes while doing just that.
The rookie's up to 16 shots and 30 attempts while averaging 22:05 of ice time through his first three games, and he's also been on the ice for 18:04 of Chicago's 25:37 of power-play time.
The Maple Leafs have suppressed opposing shots (26.9 per 60 minutes), but Bedard is different. He's already proven capable of creating shooting lanes with his skating ability and stickhandling deftness, and his shooting arsenal is anything but one-dimensional.
I also value that Toronto is a huge favorite because if the Maple Leafs pull out to a cushy lead, the ice should tilt in Chicago's favor and create even more opportunities for Bedard to contribute to the shots column.
It's also worth highlighting the wide range of prices available for this shot prop across our best sports betting sites.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -160 | -148 | -143 ?? | -160 |
I would price the Over 3.5 shots at -178 based on my projection of Bedard registering 4.4 shots against Toronto on Monday. The difference in my numbers and the -143 BetMGM odds is a positive expected value of 9%.
This is where the fun starts.
FanDuel offers alternative shot totals, and there is also an edge in backing Bedard to register at least five shots based on my projection of 4.4 shots. I'd price this prop at +135, which presents a positive expected value of 5% compared to the +146 FanDuel odds.
There's also the option to keep climbing the shot ladder with alternative totals of 6+ and 7+ shots for Bedard available, and here is the breakdown of the FanDuel prices compared to my projection:
| Shot total | FanDuel price | My price | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6+ | +280 | +253 | 8% |
| 7+ | +550 | +482 | 12% |
While my modeling is showing value in targeting the higher totals, I'm not comfortable recommending to go above 5+ shots.
Connor Bedard player prop picks made 10/16/23 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
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