Comparing Super Bowl LVII player prop odds to regular season averages

Popular Chiefs and Eagles player prop bets for Super Bowl

A lot of things change over the course of a season. Injuries happen. Young players get more reps as they get deeper into the playbook. Coaches find mismatches from game to game and week to week. Therefore, this exercise will hardly be an exact science, but I’m just presenting it for informational purposes to see if anything stands out in a big way.

Odds are only from DraftKings Sportsbook. Props not lined at DK may be lined elsewhere, so season averages are included for those props.

Quarterback Player Props

Passing yards: Over/under 290.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 308.8 yards

Pass attempts: Over/under 39.5 (+100/-130)

Regular season average: 38.1 attempts

In games where the Chiefs ran at least 58 offensive plays, Mahomes went over this line in 12 of 14 games. That may be the handicap with his passing yards and attempts. Will the Chiefs be able to sustain drives and stay on the field? Can they keep the Eagles pass rush at bay for Mahomes to complete passes? His five lowest yardage outputs this season came in games where the Chiefs simply didn’t run a lot of plays.

Rushing yards: Over/under 19.5 (-110/-120)

Regular season average: 21.1 yards

Shade to the under makes sense here with both the line and the vig given that Mahomes is compromised with the bum ankle. He’s also gone over this total just twice since Week 12. He hasn’t had more than five rushing attempts in a game since Week 10. 

Passing yards: Over/under 247.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 246.7 yards

Pass attempts: Over/under 32.5 (-105/-125)

Regular season average: 30.7 attempts

This one is particularly interesting because of the late-season injury and the two blowout wins in the playoffs. Hurts had six of his eight highest outputs by passing yards in the first nine weeks of the season. Over his final seven regular season games, Hurts only averaged 237 passing yards per game. In the two playoff games, Hurts has combined for just 275 passing yards, but the Eagles won those games by a combined score of 69-14.

He’s only gone over this number twice since Week 8. The Chiefs represent a big step up in class from most of Philadelphia’s opponents and a closer game may force him to throw more often, but the Eagles have relied heavily on the running game for quite some time now.

Rushing yards: Over/under 49.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 50.7

Not much of a change from his season average here either. Hurts has 73 rushing yards in the two playoff games, failing to hit 40 in both games. However, he’s had some huge games with 157 rushing yards in Week 12 against Green Bay and 90 yards in the season opener against the Lions.

He’s just generally been less effective as a rusher since coming back from injury with 86 yards on 29 attempts. Even in Week 15 against the Bears, he had 61 rushing yards, but it took 17 carries. How much emphasis will the Chiefs put on containing him? That’s the question we all need to answer.

Running Back Player Props

Rushing yards: N/A

Regular season average: 48.8 yards

Rush attempts: Over/under 11.5 (-120/-110)

Regular season average: 10 attempts

Receptions: N/A

Regular season average: 0.8 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 12.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 7.6 yards

Pacheco averaged 14 rush attempts per game from Week 10 through the end of the regular season, as he took over as the feature back. In that span, he averaged 55.8 yards per game. His two playoff games have been wildly different, as he had 12 carries for 95 yards against the Jaguars, but just 26 yards on 10 attempts against the Bengals. Interestingly, that was Pacheco’s breakout game as a receiver with five catches for 59 yards. He had six targets in that one game after having 14 in his 17 regular season games.

Rushing yards: Over/under 23.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 17.1 yards

Rush attempts: N/A

Regular season average: 4.2 attempts

Receptions: Over/under 2.5 (-165/+135)

Regular season average: 3.3 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 22.5 (-110/-120)

Regular season average: 30.1 yards

McKinnon played in all 17 games, but did not start any of them. He only had double-digit carries in one regular season game and then again in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars when Mahomes was first injured with the high ankle sprain. He only had 25 yards on those 11 carries against Jacksonville. Outside of that game against Jacksonville, McKinnon has only had more than 50% of the snaps twice since Week 11.

McKinnon only had 13 catches on 17 targets in the first seven weeks of the season, but had 43 catches on 54 targets over his last 10 games, the majority of those without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Rushing yards: Over/under 57.5 (-115/-115)

Regular season average: 74.6 yards

Rush attempts: Over/under 13.5 (+100/-130)

Regular season average: 15.2 attempts

Receptions: Over/under 1.5 (+160/-195)

Regular season average: 1.2 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 4.5 (-125/-105)

Regular season average: 4.6 yards

Sanders had 17 carries for 90 yards against the Giants and then 11 carries for 42 yards against the 49ers. The Eagles only used him on 40% of the offensive snaps in Weeks 17 and 18, so it does seem like they were trying to conserve some energy and some reps heading into the playoffs. They’ve given a lot of opportunities to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott while relying on the ground game. In the Super Bowl, with nothing to hold back, you wonder if maybe Sanders is out there a lot more often. Up until Week 17, he had played at least 51% of the snaps in every game.

From a receiving standpoint, Sanders has three catches for -4 yards in his last six games. It might only take one catch for him to get over 4.5, so this could be an attractive prop. He has had at least six receiving yards in eight of his 19 games to this point.

Rushing yards: N/A

Regular season average: 14.1 yards

  
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