Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets: NFL, Week 12

The Washington Commanders (4-7) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (7-3) on Nov. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Arlington.

The Cowboys are betting favorites in this Week 12 matchup, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this Week 12 game with 84.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 76.9% confidence.

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Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this Week 12 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Antonio Gibson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• Brian Robinson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Brian Robinson has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Curtis Samuel has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 47% ROI)
• Logan Thomas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Dak Prescott has hit the Interceptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 51% ROI)
• Michael Gallup has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• Dak Prescott has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
• Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 90% ROI)
• Dak Prescott has hit the Completions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 84% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cowboys vs Commanders

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Cowboys vs Commanders

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Cowboys vs Commanders

Commanders Best Bets:

• The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Washington Commanders have scored first in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.70 Units / 31% ROI)

Cowboys Best Bets:

• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 84% ROI)
• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.90 Units / 72% ROI)
• The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 62% ROI)

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders went 5-5 (-0.5 Units / -4.1% ROI).

• Commanders are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.8 Units / -37.67% ROI
• Commanders are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
• Commanders are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys went 7-3 (+3.75 Units / 33.94% ROI).

• Cowboys are 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -2.65% ROI
• Cowboys are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
• Cowboys are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Commanders are winless (0-6) after a road win since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .462.

The Commanders are 1-4 (.200) at home this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .579.

The Commanders are 3-6 (.333) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — tied for 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .507.

The Commanders are winless (0-4) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .398.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Cowboys are undefeated (7-0) after a loss since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .474.

The Cowboys are undefeated (5-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .493.

The Cowboys are 7-1 (.875) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Commanders have turned the ball over 21 times this season — tied for most in NFL.

The Cowboys are 17-5 (.773) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2022 season — fifth-best in NFL. The Commanders have turned the ball over 47 times since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

  
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