The Washington Commanders (1-1-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-0) on Sep. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
The Bengals are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Commanders vs. Bengals Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Commanders vs. Bengals Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bengals will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Commanders players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Terry McLaurin has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Browning has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Mike Gesicki has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Zack Moss has hit the Longest Rush Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 53% ROI)
Bengals Best Bets:
- The Cincinnati Bengals have scored first in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Commanders went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI
Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bengals went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Bengals are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -100% ROI
- Bengals are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bengals are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
The Commanders were 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are 1-8 (.111) when playing in cold weather since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Commanders are winless (0-9) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Bengals are 7-3 (.700) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 258.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Bengals were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.
The Bengals are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .665.
The Bengals were 7-1 (.875) when allowing less than 22 points last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .747.
Additional Matchup Notes for Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have run 57.8% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed their opponents to run 62.7% of plays in their territory this season — worst in NFL.