The Indianapolis Colts (2-2-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Jacksonville, FL.
The Jaguars are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Colts vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Jaguars will win this game with 57.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Colts will cover the spread with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Christian Kirk has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 65% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trevor Lawrence has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Travis Etienne has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Mac Jones has hit the Interceptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 48% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Jaguars Best Bets:
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have scored first in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Colts are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -3.23% ROI
- Colts are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Colts are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Jaguars are 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -100% ROI
- Jaguars are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Jaguars are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Colts are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .142.
The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.
The Colts were 1-8 (.111) when allowing 22 or more points last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .223.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars are winless (0-4) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Jaguars are winless (0-4) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.
The Jaguars were undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Jaguars were 5-2 (.714) when not losing a fumble last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.
Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have run successful plays on 53.8% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 58.8% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.