The Indianapolis Colts (9-5) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (4-10) on Dec. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Atlanta, GA.
The Colts are betting favorites in this Week 16 matchup, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).
The Colts vs. Falcons Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this Week 16 game with 55.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.
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Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this Week 16 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Pittman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 54% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kylen Granson has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Michael Pittman has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Cordarrelle Patterson has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.50 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have scored last in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.30 Units / 40% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts went 9-5 (+3.45 Units / 22.26% ROI).
- Colts are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 26.95% ROI
- Colts are 10-4 when betting the Over for +5.6 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Colts are 4-10 when betting the Under for -7 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons went 4-10 (-7.1 Units / -45.51% ROI).
- Falcons are 6-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -22.43% ROI
- Falcons are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
- Falcons are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Colts are 3-4-1 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .715.
The Colts are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 22 points this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .745.
The Colts are 8-3 (.727) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Colts were 1-10 (.091) when making less than 7 explosive plays in the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .401.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Falcons are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .479.
The Falcons are 2-9 (.182) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .436.
The Falcons are 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 run defenses this season — 5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .457.
The Falcons are 2-4 (.333) after a loss this season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .485.