We had another incredible week at 7-3-1 ATS. Underdogs performed well again 4-2-1 with two ML outright winners (Utah State and Navy), along with Iowa State narrowly missing a victory. Favorites went 3-1 ATS and 4-0 ML, you could have easily fit them into any parlay or round-robin of your choosing. UCONN and Georgia State were never in doubt and Notre Dame led by 19 points late in the 3rd quarter. Oregon State played down to Stanford and eeked out a win in the 4th quarter. Now to the bad, MTSU and UTEP got absolutely destroyed in every aspect. That's okay because we can't win them all. Now let& #39;s dive into this week. For anyone reading this for the first time, the thought process is simple; we are targeting teams with a top-30 rush rate. There are four main advanced defensive statistics that we will look at to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, and Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness). There are several angles at play, an underdog with a high rush rate vs an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script. Secondly, a favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite's plan B strategy is never going to be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense. Next, an underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to bl ow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball. Lastly, we have a favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be at most a 10-point favorite. The reason for this thinking is high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and fewer overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. put this allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here's a summary of the teams we are looking for.
- Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs below-average defenses
- Underdogs with a stout defense vs a top-30 rush rate favorite
- Favorites with a stout defense vs a top 30 rush rate underdog
- Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs a below-average defense
Here are the advanced statistics we will make our analysis based off:
Glossary:'
- Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
- Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
- Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, 100% of yards needed on 3rd and 4th down.
- Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
Let’s dive into the 10 games we are going to target.
Michigan 103rd Pass Rate
Penn State
- 2nd Def Stuff Rate
- 4th Def Line Yards
- 34th Def Rush Success Rate
- 54th Def Rush IsoPPP
Minnesota 118th Pass Rate
Illinois
- 48th Def Stuff Rate
- 15th Def Line Yards
- 1st Def Rush Success Rate
- 119th Def Rush IsoPPP
Kansas 108th Pass Rate
Oklahoma
- 117th Def Stuff Rate
- 122nd Def Line Yards
- 102nd Def Rush Success Rate
- 100th Def Rush IsoPPP
Arkansas 127th Pass Rate
BYU
- 113th Def Stuff Rate
- 121st Def Line Yards
- 103rd Def Rush Success Rate
- 30th Def Rush IsoPPP
Oregon State 100th Pass Rate
Washington State
- 22nd Def Stuff Rate
- 25th Def Line Yards
- 46th Def Rush Success Rate
- 36th Def Rush IsoPPP
Air Force 131st Pass Rate
UNLV
- 111th Def Stuff Rate
- 123rd Def Line Yards
- 111th Def Rush Success Rate
- 16th Def Rush IsoPPP
Miami (OH) 107th Pass Rate
Bowling Green
- 120th Def Stuff Rate
- 115th Def Line Yards
- 100th Def Rush Success Rate
- 118th Def Rush IsoPPP
Northern Illinois 111th Pass Rate
Eastern Michigan
- 129th Def Stuff Rate
- 103rd Def Line Yards
- 92nd Def Rush Success Rate
- 5th in Def Rush IsoPPP
James Madison 106th Pass Rate
Georgia Southern
- 112th Def Stuff Rate
- 119th Def Line Yards
- 108th Def Rush Success Rate
- Def Rush IsoPPP