Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s slate.
Check out our College Football game previews for Week 7:
- Auburn vs. Ole Miss
- Maryland vs. Indiana
- LSU vs. Florida
- Clemson vs. Florida State
- Stanford vs. Notre Dame
- Alabama vs. Tennessee
- Penn State vs. Michigan
- USC vs. Utah
- Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
- Kansas vs. Oklahoma
- Syracuse vs. North Carolina State
- Toledo vs. Kent State
- North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
- Arkansas vs. BYU
- Arizona vs. Washington
- Nevada vs. Hawaii
- James Madison vs. Georgia Southern
And here are our other articles with picks of the weekend:
- Thor Nystrom's Best College Football Week 7 Bets
- Bogman's College Football Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions
- College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>
Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Alabama
This spread is more or less fair if Alabama QB Bryce Young is fully healthy. It's slightly off if Young plays but is compromised. And it's way, way off if Young doesn't play.
Alabama is in deep trouble if Young is inactive again, as he was last week against Texas A&M with a right shoulder AC joint sprain. Not only because there's a seismic qualitative drop-off to QB2 Jalen Milroe, but also because it prevents Alabama from exploiting Tennessee's biggest singular weakness.
The Vols have a below-average pass defense that ranks No. 73 in success rate. A healthy Young piles up yardage against that pass defense. Milroe, as yet, is not equipped to take advantage. He's a fabulous athlete who remains raw as a passer – an issue exacerbated by Alabama's down receiving corps.
What Milroe can do is run. Young was injured in the second quarter of the Oct. 1 game against Arkansas. In the six-plus quarters since Milroe took over, Milroe has rushed for 172 yards and a TD. Extrapolated, that's an average of more than 100 rushing yards per game. Alabama's passing offense drops off a cliff with Milroe in, but the Tide's rushing attack becomes a little more dangerous.
Here's the problem for Bama in that scenario: Tennessee's run defense is awesome. The Vols' run D ranks No. 3 in success rate and No. 9 in stuff rate. The combo of Milroe and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are enough to beat most teams (they ran for 235 yards combined last week versus A&M) without a humming passing attack. Not the Vols.
Alabama has a strong defense. Tennessee will move the ball on it. The Vols will move the ball against any defense in the nation. The Vols are multiple – ranking top-10 in both rushing and passing success – and have one of the sport's truly elite offensive play-callers calling the shots in HC Josh Heupel. Tennessee is like a pitcher with four filthy pitches and great control who sequences impeccably, overwhelming and confusing batters.
Vols WR1 Cedric Tillman didn't play against LSU due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered against Florida on Sept. 24. The Alabama game was always Tillman's target return date. Heupel also expects starting LT Gerald Mincey back this week after Mincey missed the LSU game.
If there's good news about Tillman's absence, it's that it thrust Vols WR Bru McCoy into a featured role in which he could sink or swim. He swam. The former five-star posted consecutive 100-yard games and finally appears to be flowering into what the recruiting gurus told us he'd become out of high school.
Young is worth around 10 points on the spread. Tillman is worth a point or two. If Young is out and Tillman is in, I'd actually favor Tennessee outright. If Young plays but isn't himself – which is the heavily-favored outcome two-weeks out from an AC sprain of his throwing shoulder – I'd nick Alabama a field goal or so on my spread. Either way, the value is on Tennessee.
Pick: Tennessee +7.5
- Thor Nystrom
Western Kentucky (-5.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
I feel like MTSU is getting a little bit too much respect with this line. Middle Tennessee had one of the biggest upsets I've seen, beating the Hurricanes on their own home turf in Week 4, and they should be proud!' It was a huge win for the program, but the other five games they played went exactly as expected.'
MTSU beat Colorado State and FCS Tennessee State but was beaten by James Madison, UTSA, and UAB. I thought MTSU had a chance against UAB as 10-point underdogs, but UAB smashed them by 27 last week. Every game that MTSU has lost, they have lost against the spread, and I believe they will lose this game.
Western Kentucky matches up well with MTSU because they sling the rock! WKU has a top-3 passing offense in the country, behind only Washington by two yards and Texas Tech by 10. QB Austin Reed hadn't thrown for 350 in a game before the 73-0 thrashing of FIU, but in the two games since, he has gone for 406 and 373. Reed is on a heater, and MTSU is BAD against the aerial attack this season. They rank 119th in passing yards against, allowing over 280 yards per game, and 105th in QB Rating against. The three losses have been particularly bad: 278 yards to UAB’s Dylan Hopkins (season-high), 414 yards to Frank Harris of UTSA (season-high), and 287 yards to James Madison's Todd Centenio (which wasn't a season-high, but his six passing TDs were).
MTSU has been hit-or-miss on offense this season, putting up over 40 points twice and 30 or more twice, but also has been held to seven in Week 1 and only 14 last week against UAB. WKU statistically ranks slightly above average on defense and grades out as slightly below average, according to PFF. MTSU has made some six plays over 50 yards which are tied for 6th-most in the country, but half of those came against Miami. WKU hasn't given up a 50-yard play yet this season. This is a bad matchup for MTSU, and all we are asking them to cover is 5.5 points. I think they do that and then some!
Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 (-110)
- Scott Bogman
Kansas (+9) at Oklahoma
The Jayhawks are 5-0-1 ATS, one of only three teams that hasn't yet suffered an ATS loss (the other two, James Madison and TCU, have played five games to KU's six). The Sooners have failed to cover four of their last five games. Yet the Jayhawks continue to get no respect on the line, while the sportsbooks continue to drop bad Oklahoma spreads. We've got a window of opportunity here.
Since a cotton-soft opening-slate (UTEP, Kent State, Nebraska), Oklahoma has been exposed. In the past three games – against K-State, TCU, and Texas – OU has lost by an average score of 48-19.
This line opened in the OU -7/-7.5 range. In the days since Sunday, the market has reacted to quarterback health news on both sides in pushing this spread to OU -9. KU QB Jalon Daniels (right shoulder) is listed as doubtful but will likely miss the game, while OU QB Dillon Gabriel is listed as questionable but is likely to play.
Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU – his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with a healthy Gabriel – if the tides change and he's out, I'd favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large, as anyone who watched Oklahoma get demoralized by Texas 49-0 last weekend could attest.