College football line moves and best bets for Week 6
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6.5, 53.5) at Louisville Cardinals
Sam Hartman and the Irish escaped Durham with a 21-4 win and cover on Saturday, but they hit the road for a second consecutive week on Saturday. Notre Dame will face Louisville in a brutal sandwich spot this weekend. A home meeting with the Trojans looms on Oct. 14 looms, and the Irish do not want to be caught looking past a Cardinals team that has failed to cover three of four games.
Louisville will be a nice change of pace for Notre Dame, which just faced the sixth and second-best scoring defenses in the country in consecutive weeks. Ohio State and Duke also had very good secondaries which have limited Notre Dame wide receivers to 154 yards the last two games. Of the seven defenders who have dropped into coverage at least 114 times for Louisville, only two have a reception allowed rate of better than 57.1%, according to PFF. This could be a game in which Hartman and the passing attack open up after being held down for the last two weeks.
This will be a line worth monitoring throughout the week. Circa Sports and DraftKings both opened this line under a touchdown, and when Circa Sports went to a full seven-point spread it was bought back to 6.5 in the next 30 minutes. This is likely going to be the story until Saturday, with any seven lasting for only a few moments before the market comes in on the home underdog.