College football Week 3: Key stats, observations, huge line swings

Teams across the college football landscape have played two games, and in some cases, three.

While most analysts love to make bold proclamations about what we’ve seen from the teams thus far, I tend to be more patient, and actually feel that this is a great time to analyze factors that might NOT be what they seem. In other words, find overreactions and benefit from them.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some key statistics, observations, injuries and huge line swings that might not be telling an accurate story.

Strength of opponents tells a big story

Again, it’s early, but after two games, some teams have put up incredible numbers against inferior foes, leading to rather easy point-spread victories as well as climbs up the polls. Other teams that have tested themselves with quality opposition, and have paid for it, either in suffering losses, or perhaps not looking as strong as thought a few weeks ago. In both situations, teams’ power ratings, and hence, their game lines can be affected.

Since this past Saturday, I have been inundated with stories ripping the Big Ten West Division, and rightfully so, as several of the teams have gotten off to rough starts. One of the teams, Nebraska, even fired its coach already, it’s been that bad. That said, there have been some teams in the Big Ten that have gotten off to fantastic starts, but unfortunately, they have not been tested. These are four teams I will have my eye on for the next few weeks in

analyzing how they fare against some tougher opposition.

Maryland: The Terps have played the FBS nation’s 19th-easiest two- game slate to date. They have put up some huge numbers offensively, which I will detail in a bit. The program is clearly in a positive growth pattern, but I’m not sure wins over Buffalo and Charlotte will have

prepared them for SMU, at Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue over the next month.

Michigan: The Wolverines were in the CFB Playoff last season, and because of a lot of defensive losses to the NFL, a lot like Georgia, many experts wrote off their chances to return to greatness in 2022. Instead, Michigan has exploded offensively with 53.5 PPG in the first two contests. The problem? Those efforts came against two Mountain West teams that have combined for 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS records. It’s safe to say we don’t have any idea how good (or great) this team is as it gets ready for the start of conference play in two weeks.

Michigan State: The Spartans have been impressive in two early blowouts of MAC teams, outscoring Western Michigan and Akron by an 87-13 margin. Starting with a game at Washington, where they are an underdog, this team’s next six games are brutal.

Minnesota: The two teams that Minnesota has faced in the early going have been the 4th easiest pair of opponents. The Gophers have taken advantage, outscoring those teams 100-10. They have also put up some ridiculous video game numbers, and have 12 rushing TDs versus just one through the air. In fact, they have run the ball on 69 percent of their plays. When the going gets tough against Power 5 foes the rest of the way, will this team be adequately prepared?

Ridiculous stats

If you would have told me that Kansas would be the nation’s top-scoring team after two games, I’m sure I could have thought of a few expletives for you. However, the Jayhawks are one of eight teams currently averaging more than 50 points per game. Furthermore, I’m not sure any of the eight would have been expected to be on this list:

1. Kansas – 55.5 PPG

2. Michigan – 53.5 PPG

T-2. James Madison – 53.5 PPG

T-2. USC – 53.5 PPG

5. Georgia Southern – 52 PPG

6. North Carolina – 51.3 PPG

7. Minnesota – 50 PPG

T-7. Miami – 50 PPG

The best Offensive Yards per Play teams are also a bit of a surprise, with Maryland leading the way, and the much-maligned Clemson offense also ranking highly:

1. Maryland – 8.65 YPP

2. USC – 8.62 YPP

3. TCU – 8.41 YPP

4. Michigan – 8.36 YPP

5. Clemson – 8.28 YPP

The best defensive teams in the country in terms of Yards per Play have also been truly unexpected. In fact, not counting head coach Deion Sanders’ top-ranked Jackson State FCS team at 2.41 yards per play, the top two FBS teams have been:

1. Toledo – 2.79 YPP

2. Tulane – 2.83 YPP

These are crazy numbers, but again, by no means season defining. Neither of those teams has faced a quality foe yet, and in fact, both share a common opponent – Massachusetts.

I have touched briefly upon Minnesota and the offensive numbers the Golden Gophers have put together. Even though they have been a run-first type of team in the early going, they have been extremely efficient. In fact, they are No. 3 in the country currently in Yards per Pass Attempt, behind Army and high-scoring USC:

1. Army – 17.5 YPA

2. USC – 11.77 YPA

3. Minnesota – 11.67 YPA

On the other side of the equation, there are two teams averaging fewer than 4.0 yards per pass attempt:

130. Iowa – 3.87 YPA

131. UMass – 2.32 YPA

The Third Down Conversion Percentage can be a telling story, as often this is decided by circumstance rather than skill. Against weaker opponents, there are fewer 3rd-and-long conversion situations, thus leading to a higher percentage. However, the top-ranked team in this stat, with a ridiculous 74 percent, just pulled a mammoth upset against a quality opponent. There are three teams right now converting better than 2/3 of their 3rd down chances

1. Kansas – 74 percent 3rd down conversion

2. Minnesota – 68 percent

3. Georgia Southern – 66.7 percent

Turnovers need to be considered when analyzing the strengths of any team’s individual wins or losses. So far in 2022, these teams have had the best luck in terms of Turnover Differential:

1. USC: %plussign$ 4.0 TO Diff/game

2. Western Kentucky: + 3.5

T-2. LA Lafayette: + 3.5

On the other side of the coin, these teams have suffered the worst turnover luck so far:

1. Stanford: -3.5 TO Diff/game

2. E Michigan/Navy/UConn/Temple/Hawaii: -2.5

Turnover luck can change across the time of a game, month or season, so it’s something you want to watch closely.

Pace guides totals

  
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