Here’s an early look at College Football Week 3 spreads, along with my projections. We’ll run through major injuries that are affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.” Spreads are from the perspective of the home team, i.e. a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.” Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (ie bring that with you to your handicap)
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 3 College Football Power Rankings >>
| Away | Home | ATL | Spread | Value | Day | CST |
| Florida St. | Louisville | 3.7 | 2 | 1.7 | Friday | 6:30 PM |
| Air Force | Wyoming | 15.2 | 17 | -1.8 | Friday | 7:00 PM |
| Georgia | South Carolina | 22.0 | 24.5 | -2.5 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Connecticut | Michigan | -46.6 | -46.5 | -0.1 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Oklahoma | Nebraska | 10.3 | 11.5 | -1.2 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Texas St. | Baylor | -32.3 | -30.5 | -1.8 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Purdue | Syracuse | 0.7 | 1 | -0.3 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Cincinnati | Miami (OH) | 19.9 | 21 | -1.1 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Western Kentucky | Indiana | 1.2 | -6.5 | 7.7 | Saturday | 11:00 AM |
| Buffalo | Coastal Carolina | -13.1 | -14.5 | 1.4 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| South Alabama | UCLA | -17.4 | -15.5 | -1.9 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| Ohio | Iowa St. | -24.7 | -17.5 | -7.2 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| Rutgers | Temple | 19.2 | 18.5 | 0.7 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| Old Dominion | Virginia | -8.9 | -10.5 | 1.6 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| California | Notre Dame | -19.5 | -9.5 | -10.0 | Saturday | 1:30 PM |
| Tulane | Kansas St. | -10.2 | -16 | 5.8 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| North Texas | UNLV | 1.1 | -3 | 4.1 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| New Mexico St. | Wisconsin | -42.0 | -37.5 | -4.5 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Brigham Young | Oregon | -1.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Ole Miss | Georgia Tech | 19.1 | 16 | 3.1 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Penn St. | Auburn | 2.1 | 3 | -0.9 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Vanderbilt | Northern Illinois | -0.4 | -1.5 | 1.1 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Colorado | Minnesota | -24.3 | -27.5 | 3.2 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Troy | Appalachian St. | -10.4 | -12.5 | 2.1 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Georgia Southern | UAB | -15.1 | -12 | -3.1 | Saturday | 2:30 PM |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Alabama | -53.3 | -49 | -4.3 | Saturday | 3:00 PM |
| Kansas | Houston | -13.1 | -9.5 | -3.6 | Saturday | 3:00 PM |
| Liberty | Wake Forest | -12.9 | -16.5 | 3.6 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Colorado St. | Washington St. | -16.2 | -16.5 | 0.3 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Marshall | Bowling Green | 21.6 | 16.5 | 5.1 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Mississippi St. | LSU | -0.7 | 2 | -2.7 | Saturday | 5:00 PM |
| Toledo | Ohio St. | -27.4 | -31 | 3.6 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Texas Tech | North Carolina St. | -8.3 | -10.5 | 2.2 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Akron | Tennessee | -41.1 | -48 | 6.9 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Arkansas St. | Memphis | -14.7 | -13.5 | -1.2 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Charlotte | Georgia St. | -17.3 | -20 | 2.7 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| South Florida | Florida | -21.4 | -24.5 | 3.1 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| Michigan St. | Washington | 3.6 | -3.5 | 7.1 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| Pittsburgh | Western Michigan | 19.0 | 10.5 | 8.5 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| Nevada | Iowa | -23.1 | -23 | -0.1 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| SMU | Maryland | -1.6 | -3.5 | 1.9 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| UCF | Florida Atlantic | 12.1 | 9.5 | 2.6 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| Louisiana | Rice | 15.9 | 11.5 | 4.4 | Saturday | 6:30 PM |
| Louisiana Tech | Clemson | -34.0 | -32.5 | -1.5 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| UTEP | New Mexico | -1.2 | 3 | -4.2 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| UTSA | Texas | -15.5 | -11 | -4.5 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Miami (FL) | Texas A&M | -1.3 | -5.5 | 4.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| San Diego St. | Utah | -23.6 | -21 | -2.6 | Saturday | 9:00 PM |
| Fresno St. | USC | -14.8 | -13 | -1.8 | Saturday | 9:30 PM |
| Eastern Michigan | Arizona St. | -19.5 | -19 | -0.5 | Saturday | 10:00 PM |
Texas (-11) vs. UTSA
Quinn Ewers will miss 4-6 weeks after suffering an SC sprain to his non-throwing shoulder in Saturday's near-miss loss to Alabama. Hudson Card, who took over for the injured Ewers, will handle starting duties until Ewers' return. The earliest Ewers could return would appear to be Oct. 8 against Oklahoma, and you can bet Ewers' rehab will be geared towards that idea.
Card provides more mobility than Ewers, but he doesn't have near Ewers' arm talent. Expect to see more running out of Texas with Card behind center. RB Bijan Robinson will get all the touches he can handle.
The discrepancy between my spread for this game (-15.5) and the Vegas line (-11) can be explained by Ewers' injury.
We also found out this week that Texas TE Jaheel Billingsley, an Alabama transfer, is serving a six-game suspension for what was described as something that happened before he was with the Texas program. Billingsley was expected to be UT's starting tight end.
If there's a small bit of good news, it's that WR Agiye Hall, ironically another Alabama transfer, had his suspension for a criminal mischief charge lifted late last week. Hall was the backup z-WR on Saturday's depth chart for Alabama.
Hall took only one snap in Saturday's game, and he wasn't targeted. But the former four-star recruit could potentially work his way into a larger role alongside Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington in the weeks ahead.
Rutgers (-18.5) at Temple
Rutgers QB Noah Vedral remained out for Saturday's blowout win over Wagner with a hand injury. Rutgers hasn't offered a timeline for his return.
Ballyhooed redshirt freshman QB Gavin Wimsatt hasn't been sharp with increased snaps through the first two games. For his career, Wimsatt is now 17-of-41 (41.5%) for 141 yards and a 1/4 TD/INT ratio. If Rutgers had its druthers, he probably wouldn't take another snap in a significant spot this season. Too early to evoke Artur Sitkowski, but it's been a rough start by any measure (but keep in mind this context: Wimsatt graduated a year early from high school, so this should be his true freshman year).
Rutgers won't need Vedral to beat Temple. But Vedral's status is something to monitor when Rutgers gets into Big 10 play.
Ohio State (-31) vs. Toledo
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed Saturday's blowout victory over Arkansas State with the hamstring injury that knocked him out of the opening-week win over Notre Dame. Smith-Njigba is expected to miss this weekend's game against Toledo, too.
OSU was also without WR Julian Fleming against the Red Wolves. Fleming warmed up before the game against the Fighting Irish and also before Saturday's game against ASU but was unable to play in either. OSU HC Ryan Day expects Fleming back this weekend against Toledo.
With Smith-Njigba down, youngsters Marvin Harrison Jr. (7-184-3) and Emeka Egbuka (4-118-1) each went off against the Red Wolves. Both will get peppered with targets again against Toledo. If Fleming is active, he would give the Buckeyes the legitimate WR3 they didn't have against ASU.
DC Jim Knowles said after the opening-week win over Notre Dame that the Buckeyes played “rather basic” defense that night and that there were a “lot of things we haven't shown.” That remained the case after the win over Arkansas State, and will likely be the case after the Toledo game, too.
Expect Knowles to open up his bag of tricks when Big 10 play opens. Early returns on Knowles' unit have been extremely positive, for whatever that's worth.
Kentucky vs. Youngstown State
Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., who's been suspended for a DUI charge, has been cleared to return on Oct. 1 against Ole Miss. That means he'll miss this weekend's game against FCS YSU and also next week's non-con matchup against Northern Illinois.
Kentucky is also missing RB Ramon Jefferson, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury in the opener against Miami (OH). Kentucky has managed to start 2-0 despite the compromised backfield depth.
RB Kavosiey Smoke will keep the starting gig through the end of the month. More explosive than Rodriguez but not as efficient, Smoke rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries in Saturday's 26-16 upset win over Florida.
Florida State (-2) at Louisville
Arizona State DL transfer Jermayne Lole, one of the most sought-after defenders in the transfer portal over the offseason, wasn't active for Friday's upset win over UCF and is expected to miss the rest of the season.
Lole missed last season with a triceps injury. He's now dealing with an injury to his other arm. How Louisville continues to deal with that is something to monitor in the coming weeks. The Cardinals' run defense is the clear Achilles Heel of the team. That was an area Lole was supposed to upgrade.
UCLA (-15.5) vs. South Alabama
UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet didn't play against Alabama State for unspecified reasons over the weekend. Fellow star QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was then knocked out of that 45-7 win with an ankle injury.
Fear not, UCLA fans. Both players were full participants in Monday's practice. Media reports from the field said DTR was moving around well, showing no lingering effects.
UCLA HC Chip Kelly used the matchup with an FCS team to get most of his roster field playing experience. On Monday, Kelly said that 88 players on the roster saw the field against Alabama State.
Notre Dame (-9) vs. California