Let’s take a look at our best College Football Week 2 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s games.
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>
Iowa (-3.5) vs. Iowa St.
Those who watched Iowa score seven points on two safeties and a field goal in last week's 7-3 win over South Dakota State would be forgiven for not wanting to invest in the Hawkeyes. But this line is short by any objective measure. It implies these teams are roughly equal in a vacuum, with Iowa only installed as favorites due to the game being played in Kinnick Stadium
But these teams aren't equal.
Iowa's offense is horrible. But all the Hawkeyes are asking is that it not turn the ball over, because Iowa has a top-3 national defense/special teams combination.
Just take a look back at last year. Iowa beat Iowa State in Ames 27-17 in a game the Hawkeyes only gained 173 yards of offense. The Hawkes scored 20 points off four forced turnovers. That Iowa State team was better than this one. Over the offseason, the Cyclones lost QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall, TE Charlie Kolar, two OL starters, and eight starters on defense.
Not only that, but ISU didn't replace the outgoing production with plug-and-play starters from the portal. Per 247Sports, ISU's transfer crop ranked No. 110 in the nation. Not much could be ascertained about the new cast of characters in ISU's win over an FCS opponent in the opener. Things won't be so easy on Saturday.
Iowa's defense ranked 12th in EPA/rush last season and returned almost everyone in the front-seven. The Hawkeyes also ranked No. 10 in EPA/pass last season despite losing CB Riley Moss to a season-ending injury. Moss is back, now.
Iowa is traditionally money in games with short spreads like this. In its last 16 games with spreads of 3.5-points or less, Iowa is 12-4 ATS. Everyone is concerned about Iowa's offense. But the bigger question should be: How is Iowa State going to score against this defense?
Bet: Iowa (-3.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Syracuse (-23.5) at UConn
The Orange were one of the pleasant surprises of Week 1, blasting Louisville 31-7. It appears Syracuse's passing game and defense have both taken a large step forward since the end of last season. The offense is now directed by respected OC Robert Anae, who appears to have coaxed major improvement out of the passing attack with his quick-hitting sideline-to-sideline machinations.
That performance should have gotten Syracuse upgraded in power rankings. But the sportsbooks appear to have overlooked that, dropping a spread more indicative of the preseason outlooks for both teams.
I purchased a Syracuse +20.5 ticket on Sunday. Since then, predictable money on the Orange has come in to push this spread to -22.5. I still think there's value on Syracuse at this number – I would bet them up to -24.
Bet: Syracuse (-23.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Pittsburgh (+6) vs. Tennessee
It appears as though Pittsburgh will be without RB ??Rodney Hammond Jr., who suffered a right leg injury on a helmet-to-helmet targeting call in the win over the Mountaineers. Hammond was a breakout star against WVU, posting 129 scrimmage yards and two TD.
Pitt is going to miss him. But Hammond's absence will clear the way for Israel Abanikanda, who was expected to lead the rotation this season but took a backseat against the Mountaineers as Hammond had one of the best games of his life.
My system is showing an absurd amount of value on Pitt in this game, installing the Panthers as 2.8-point favorites in a game the market has set at Vols -6.5 – that's nearly a double-digit discrepancy.
Recent history also points towards Pitt. While Tennessee is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against ranked opponents, Pitt is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer. Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi loves these spots.
Bet: Pittsburgh (+6)
- Thor Nystrom
Virginia (+4.5) at Illinois
This is the second-straight week the books have opened Illinois with a weird number. Last week, it was opening the Illini as four-point underdogs to Indiana. That appeared to be a mistake line. Illini gagged away a win late and lost 23-20, but covered most spread tickets purchased through mid-week.
This week, the books have surprisingly swung the other way, despite Illinois' late-game collapse. This time, it's the Illini who are getting too much respect. My numbers say Virginia should be favored.
I do think that Virginia's front-seven will have issues with Illinois' physical downhill running game. I also think that Illinois is going to have more problems defending Virginia's high-octane passing attack, which includes four future NFL receivers and a quarterback who may get drafted in Brennan Armstrong. I like the Cavs to spring the upset.
Bet: Virginia (+4.5)
- Thor Nystrom
Fresno State (+1) at Oregon State