College Football Week 2: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)
College Football Week 2: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Here’s an early look at College Football Week 2 spreads, along with my projections. We’ll run through major injuries that are affecting spreads and hit on games you might want to consider betting early in the week due to expected line movement.

In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.” Spreads are from the perspective of the home team, i.e. a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.” Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (ie bring that with you to your handicap)

Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 2 College Football Power Rankings >>

Away Home ATL Spread Value Day
Louisville UCF -4.7 -5 0.3 Friday
Boise St. New Mexico 22.4 17 5.4 Friday
Alabama Texas 14.5 18 -3.5 Saturday
Arkansas St. Ohio St. -44.5 -44.5 0.0 Saturday
Southern Miss Miami (FL) -26.5 -25.5 -1.0 Saturday
South Carolina Arkansas -9.7 -9 -0.7 Saturday
Wake Forest Vanderbilt 8.8 6.5 2.3 Saturday
Missouri Kansas St. -7.1 -8 0.9 Saturday
Duke Northwestern -13.4 -8 -5.4 Saturday
Ohio Penn St. -31.2 -25.5 -5.7 Saturday
North Carolina Georgia St. 10.0 9 1.0 Saturday
UTSA Army -0.1 2 -2.1 Saturday
South Alabama Central Michigan -6.1 -6 -0.1 Saturday
Western Michigan Ball St. 4.9 6.5 -1.6 Saturday
Marshall Notre Dame -19.9 -19 -0.9 Saturday
Appalachian St. Texas A&M -14.8 -16.5 1.7 Saturday
Tennessee Pittsburgh 0.2 4.5 -4.3 Saturday
Washington St. Wisconsin -18.4 -17 -1.4 Saturday
Colorado Air Force -14.4 -14.5 0.1 Saturday
Memphis Navy 8.4 6.5 1.9 Saturday
Maryland Charlotte 20.3 25.5 -5.2 Saturday
Akron Michigan St. -36.3 -34 -2.3 Saturday
Iowa St. Iowa -6.5 -3.5 -3.0 Saturday
Houston Texas Tech 0.2 -3 3.2 Saturday
UNLV California -12.4 -13.5 1.1 Saturday
Virginia Illinois 1.1 -3.5 4.6 Saturday
Middle Tennessee Colorado St. -4.0 -7.5 3.5 Saturday
Old Dominion East Carolina -11.4 -11 -0.4 Saturday
UAB Liberty 1.6 4 -2.4 Saturday
Kansas West Virginia -12.3 -14 1.7 Saturday
Kent St. Oklahoma -32.4 -31 -1.4 Saturday
Kentucky Florida -2.6 -5.5 2.9 Saturday
Massachusetts Toledo -29.9 -29 -0.9 Saturday
Northern Illinois Tulsa -3.4 -6.5 3.1 Saturday
Eastern Michigan Louisiana -8.8 -11.5 2.7 Saturday
Florida International Texas St. -12.3 -10.5 -1.8 Saturday
Syracuse Connecticut 25.4 20.5 4.9 Saturday
Arizona St. Oklahoma St. -8.7 -11 2.3 Saturday
USC Stanford 11.2 10.5 0.7 Saturday
San Jose St. Auburn -21.9 -21.5 -0.4 Saturday
Georgia Southern Nebraska -20.7 -21 0.3 Saturday
Hawai’i Michigan -43.8 -48.5 4.7 Saturday
Boston College Virginia Tech -3.2 -3.5 0.3 Saturday
Baylor Brigham Young -3.0 -2.5 -0.5 Saturday
New Mexico St. UTEP -13.6 -13 -0.6 Saturday
Oregon St. Fresno St. -2.3 1 -3.3 Saturday
Mississippi St. Arizona 14.1 7.5 6.6 Saturday

Boise St. (-17) at New Mexico (Friday)

Referees ejected New Mexico LB Alec Marenco in the second half of a win over an FCS opponent for targeting. He will miss the first half of Friday's game against Boise State. Marenco is a rotational linebacker and special teamer.

Boise has more pressing personnel issues. Two key contributors were carted into the tunnel in last Saturday's ugly loss to Oregon State, rotational WR Austin Bolt, and top CB Markel Reed. Bolt broke his leg and is done for the year.

Reed's status is less clear at the moment, but his odds of playing this weekend wouldn't seem to be great. Reed also missed a little more than half of last season due to injuries.

But that's not all in Bronco land, folks. HC Andy Avalos benched QB Hank Bachmeier following three first-half turnovers in the loss to the Beavers. The offense gained 22 yards in the 17 snaps Bachmeier took.

Frosh QB Taylen Green took over and impressed, becoming the first Broncos quarterback since 2014 to rush for more than 100 yards. He finished 19-of-28 for 155 yards and an INT while rushing for 102 yards and two TD on 11 attempts.

Avalos may not announce a starting quarterback for Friday's game until gameday. Stay tuned.


TCU vs. Tarleton State

TCU QB Chandler Morris left last Friday's 38-13 win over Colorado with a knee injury. Coaches ruled out Morris for Saturday's game against Tarleton, and early reports suggest he could miss a month.

QB2 Max Duggan, the former starter, relieved Morris and outplayed him, sparking the offense. Morris, more of the pocket-passer, went a meager 13-of-20 for 111 yards. Duggan only attempted three passes, completing two for 27 yards, but he abused the Buffs on the ground for 41 yards on three carries.

Duggan is bigger, more athletic, and a more productive runner than Morris and also has a stronger arm. But Duggan has always struggled with turnovers and accuracy. He won't be tested in that regard this weekend.

But it'll be worth checking in on this game to see how Duggan is acclimating in the pocket to HC Sonny Dykes' Air Raid system. That's intel we can use later this month.


Texas Tech (-3) vs. Houston

My system sees value in the underdog. And that's before taking into consideration that the favorite, Texas Tech, is going to be without its starting quarterback.

QB1 Tyler Shough exited last Saturday’s 63-10 victory over Murray State in the first quarter with a left shoulder injury. It's the same shoulder he underwent season-ending surgery on last September. Tech HC Joey McGuire said after the game that the team's medical staff was still working on a diagnosis.

“[W]e can’t tell if it’s an AC joint or collarbone, like where (the injury is),” McGuire said. “We’re hoping it’s AC, but that’s really sore to play with. You’re not playing quarterback with an AC (injury) for a couple of weeks. If it’s collarbone, it’d probably be, depending on what it is, four to six weeks. And, man, I hate it for him.” So you can expect Shough to miss between 2-6 weeks.

If there's one bit of good news for the Red Raiders, it's that they are far more equipped to deal with Shough's injury this season than they were last year. That's because last season's injury opened the door for QB Donovan Smith, who started the last four games of 2021 and won the Liberty Bowl MVP award. Smith was exceptional on Saturday, going 14-of-16 for 221 yards and four TD.

Tech even has depth behind Smith, in the form of former four-star recruit QB Behren Morton. Morton entered Saturday's blowout midway through the third quarter and went 7-of-10 for 97 yards, a TD, and an INT.

The Red Raiders did get good injury news on CB Adrian Frye, who left last week's game with a thigh contusion in the first half. McGuire told reporters he believes Frye will be ready for Saturday's game against Houston.


Ohio St. (-44.5) vs. Arkansas St.

Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba exited Saturday's win over Notre Dame after one half. Smith-Njigba took a big hit near the sidelines in the first quarter. His helmet popped off, and he landed awkwardly. According to the broadcast, Smith-Njigba tweaked his left knee/hamstring area.

Smith-Njigba briefly exited the game, returned for one series in the second quarter, and then was pulled, perhaps for precautionary reasons. He spent some of the second half riding an exercise bike and running some sprints on the sidelines.

HC Ryan Day expressed optimism to reporters that Smith-Njigba will be able to return this weekend for the game against Arkansas State.


SMU vs. Lamar

SMU starting slot WR Jake Bailey exited Saturday's win over North Texas with an undisclosed injury. Bailey spent a few weeks of fall camp in a non-contact jersey after suffering a shoulder injury in early August. It's unclear if he'll need to miss time. Bailey snagged a Rice-leading 56 catches for 714 yards and two TD last year before transferring over.

SMU also spent Saturday without RB Velton Gardner, a Kansas transfer, after Gardner suffered an unspecified injury in pregame workouts. Similarly to Bailey, we don't have any more details than that right now.


UAB (-4) at Liberty

Liberty QB Charlie Brewer will miss 6-8 weeks with a broken hand suffered in Saturday's OT win over Southern Miss. Liberty signed Brewer, who threw for over 10,000 yards during his time at Baylor and Utah, over the offseason to replace Malik Willis in the starting lineup.

HC Hugh Freeze gave QB Johnathan Bennett a twirl once Brewer got hurt. Bennett went 7-for-18 for 38 yards. But frosh QB Kedon Salter looked awesome when his number was called, going 8-for-13 for 148 yards and two TD, along with 65 rushing yards. Salter is a former top-160 overall recruit, per the 247Consensus.

A track and field athlete in high school, Salter starred in the 300-meter hurdles, high jump, long jump, and triple jump. Analysts compared him to Jayden Daniels coming out of the prep ranks (at the time, this was a compliment). Normally schools like Liberty don't have access to this caliber of recruit. Still, Salter was forced out of Tennessee following an arrest in connection with an assault and burglary shortly after signing.

You'd have to imagine Salter will take the field with the starters on Saturday against UAB. His game is far more similar to Willis' than Brewer's, so the staff shouldn't have a tough time adapting to the unexpected change.


Texas St. (-10.5) vs. Florida International

FIU QB Gunnar Holmberg is doubtful to play after suffering a concussion in last week's 38-37 OT win over FCS Bryant. Holmberg, a Duke transfer, was one of the program's top portal signings over the offseason.

After he was pulled, QB2 Grayson James actually outplayed Holmberg. James went 16-of-31 for 207 yards and four TD, including three fourth-quarter touchdowns and the game-winning 2-point conversion in OT.

Holmberg's status hasn't been updated yet, but it would appear doubtful that he'll be able to start on Saturday.


Miami (FL) (-25.5) vs. Southern Miss
ATL: Miami -26.5

Southern Miss' starting quarterback also suffered a concussion last week. USM QB Ty Keyes was knocked out of the OT loss to Liberty.

From media quotes, it sounds like Keyes has a better shot of a quick bounce-back than Holmberg. HC Will Hall told reporters on Monday that Keyes has a shot to play against Miami but wouldn't discuss Keyes' prognosis with any more specificity than that.


Cincinnati vs. Kennesaw State

Pundits expected LSU transfer RB Corey Kiner to run away with the starting job in camp but didn't. Instead, Ryan Montgomery was named RB1 of an expected committee approach.

But Montgomery was knocked out of Saturday's loss to Arkansas with an unspecified injury after gaining only seven yards on four carries. Kiner was impressive in his action, converting 12 carries into 59 yards and a TD.

  
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