Last week we found ourselves at a crossroads backing numerous favorites over 10 points. This was found to be a huge mistake. We should have stuck to our system and stayed within our guidelines. Nevertheless, we went 6-7 ATS last week with one underdog ML winner. The underdogs easily could have been 2-0, but we lost South Florida on a 2pt conversion attempt in a game that was already decided.
Let’s look at the positive. Favorites under the 10-point threshold went 4-2 and 5-1 on the ML. Favorites who were favored by more than 10 points went 1-4 ATS and 3-2 on the ML. Now, this is obviously a small sample, but it brings us back to our convictions of not laying more than 10 pts when focusing on these rush-heavy teams. Our highlighted teams essentially played exactly as expected. Florida and Oregon State destroyed two run-funnel defenses, South Florida hung with SMU to the final whistle, and Auburn controlled the vast majority of the game against Texas A&M. This brings our record to 36-31-1 ATS with fourteen ML underdog winners.
2022: 66-53-2 ATS (55.5%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)