My strong run in college football since the start of October continued this past week, with a 6-4-1 result, moving my record since that time to 28-17-2 ATS (62.2%). I’m also back up over .500 for the season overall and would be significantly so without that dismal Saturday of September 30th! The week 11 slate is a good one, with huge games in the Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC in particular. Here is a look at the 11 games that catch my eye for week 11.
College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | College Football Power Ratings
Miami (FL) at Florida State
With games against North Alabama and at a weakened Florida team only remaining until a probable ACC title game appearance, this week’s showdown with Miami could be the only real threat to derailing a perfect regular season for Florida State. Is Miami a real threat though? Well, bettors don’t seem to think so, as over 80% of the bet tickets as of Thursday were on the Seminoles as a 14-point favorites.
To me, that’s an eye-opener, as the Hurricanes are an improved team over a year ago, have only been an underdog of this size once in their last 32 games, and should extract some momentum from being disregarded like this. Let’s not forget this is also a significant rivalry game, and Miami hasn’t been this big of a dog in the series since 2013, and road teams have gone 7-2 ATS in the series since that game.
Last year’s game was a 45-3 decision in favor of FSU, so obviously, revenge will be another motivator. VSiN readers know from the CFB Analytics Report that strong defensive teams allowing fewer than 24 PPG are much better revenge teams than those that allow more. Miami yields just 20 PPG. This is a tough line spot for the Seminoles in what could be a pressure-packed contest for them to just survive with a victory. Too many points if you ask me.
Take Miami +14 (+/- 1 point)
Michigan at Penn State
We all know that the Michigan football program has dominated the news wires in recent weeks for reasons good (on the field) and bad (off the field). Naturally, there is the chance that the Wolverines might not be at their most focused on Saturday for the early contest at Penn State.
There are several good things on the Analytics Report that suggest the host Nittany Lions could surprise here. First, this is a big revenge spot for PSU after getting throttled 41-17 last year in Ann Arbor. This will be a much different environment for a team, allowing just 11.9 PPG.
Second, this is a ranked vs. ranked game, and we’ve been hitting home teams all season long in these spots to great success. Hosts are nearly a 60% ATS play since 2017.
Finally, PSU boasts a 29-10 ATS record coming off a win, and they had a huge momentum-building effort last week in crushing Maryland 51-15. Strong home dog with elite momentum and a fantastic defense, with the opponent backed heavily by public money. Sounds like a good recipe for a potential upset.
Let’s go Penn State +4.5 (+/- 1 point)
Ole Miss at Georgia
This week’s highest stakes game in the SEC comes from Athens, where Georgia figures to get a stiff test from Ole Miss. When I saw the numbers released this week, I immediately gravitated to the total in this contest, set at a somewhat lofty 58.
I know from past studies that big favorite, high totaled ranked games typically trend Under: In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 35-14 (71.4%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 21-6 (77.8%).
Both of these teams also run the ball about 57% of the time. With the Bulldogs allowing just 11.8 PPG in their last 22 home games, I have a tough time seeing this game get into the 50’s.
Let’s go Georgia-Ole Miss UNDER 58 (+/- 1.5)
Temple at South Florida
Last week, I hit a nice underdog winner with Temple taking down Navy at home. This week, the Owls head to South Florida, and it seems to be a “someone knows something” type of game. USF is a 7-point favorite and coming off a game in which it put up 50 points on Memphis but lost.
That leads us to a nice system: College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 59-38-2 ATS (60.8%) over the last 10 years. This is also a revenge spot for the Bulls and with Temple yielding 35.8 PPG, this angle will be backing the hosts too: Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 203-157 ATS (56.4%) since 2016.