It’s been a tale of three seasons so far for my Best Bets in college football, with the first few weeks producing essentially nothing either way, then a brutal September 30th putting a serious dent in my record, followed finally by a pretty strong October in which I finished the month 22-13-1 after a 7-4 performance a week ago. Let’s keep it going in November with another 11 plays lined up for the college football weekend.
College Football Odds | College Football Betting Splits | College Football Power Ratings
Miami (FL) at NC State
This year’s Miami (FL)-NC State matchup in Raleigh will mark the fourth straight time in the head-to-head series that the home team has been an underdog. The host has pulled upsets in the last two games and is actually on a 4-1 ATS run overall in the set.
Is a home dog line warranted this season when the teams are separated by just one win? Well, if you look at the raw stats, I’d say yes, as Miami has proven to be a far more competent team offensively. In fact, NC State’s offense has been downright awful on occasion this season. The Wolfpack come off a win over Clemson in which they gained just 202 yards of offense.
However, that sets us up for a nice system that I’ve called on at least three times lately without fail, including last week with Minnesota. It reads: Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 68-40 ATS (63%) in the follow-up contest. The Hurricanes are proving to be their usual inconsistent selves, and were very sloppy in last week’s win versus Virginia.
Let’s go NC State +4.5 or anything +/- 1.5
Navy at Temple
Despite bringing back a somewhat veteran team with 16 returning starters, Temple has been awful in 2023, going just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS while scoring just 19.1 PPG for head coach Stan Drayton. That said, there has been an American Conference team that has been even worse than the Owls offensively this season, and that team is Navy, who happens to be playing as a near-TD road favorite in the head-to-head matchup this Saturday.
Would I base a play solely on Navy being a horrible offensive road favorite? Well, maybe, as a I do make that the basis for many NFL plays each season, but in this case, there are a few other factors I find to be more important.
First, for whatever reason, the betting public loves the Midshipmen this week, with 86% of bets on them as the road chalk at DraftKings. Second, Temple has a history of playing pretty well versus Navy, going 10-4 ATS in the last 14. And finally, and perhaps most importantly, Drayton should welcome back QB EJ Warner this week. The Owls have been without him since October 7th. How important is he to the offense? In the three games they played earlier against lesser opponents, Temple averaged 33.7 PPG, and he threw for 1009 yards and an 8:1 TD-Int ratio in the contests. This should be a reinvigorated Owls offense this week.
Let’s go Temple +6.5 (+/- 0.5) with some ML action too
Houston at Baylor
There’s a strange occurrence in the Houston-Baylor clash for Saturday in betting terms, as over 80% of the handle at DraftKings is looking for an Under on the total of 58.5. It’s rare that bettors back Unders in general. It’s even more scarce in higher-totaled games. Does it win? Well, yes, at least according to this DK Betting Splits system from the VSiN Analytics Report this week: The average college football total last year was 54.5. In games where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they were relatively sharp, going 35-21 (62.5%).
I could see why the total may be approaching 60, as both teams allow over 32 PPG. However, they have both played pretty stout offenses and have performed admirably, with each defensive until allowing fewer points on average than their opponent score. That’s a good thing because both teams score fewer than 26 PPG. In fact, Houston is off a shutout loss, and Baylor scored just 18 points last week. Neither team’s offense is very balanced either, as both have trouble moving it on the ground. It takes balanced attacks to create explosive games.
I’ll go Under 58 (+/- 1) in Houston-Baylor