Take a look at some of our top picks from Week 1’s slate of college football action.
- Thor Nystrom’s Best Bets
- Scott Bogman’s Best Bets
Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. West Virginia
My system shows double-digits of point value on the Panthers in the annual Backyard Brawl. The market is clearly more pessimistic about Pitt following offseason losses than I am. More to the point, I'm far lower on West Virginia than the marketplace.
Pitt won the ACC and finished 11-3 last season behind a suddenly-explosive passing offense. That passing attack will be down after losing the four men most responsible for the surge, R1 QB Kenny Pickett, Biletnikoff-winning WR Jordan Addison (USC), OC Mark Whipple (Nebraska) and WR coach Brennan Marion (Texas).
But Pitt's replacements for Pickett and Addison – portal adds QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and ex-Akron WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation rate against single coverage, per PFF) – were well-reasoned, ensuring the aerial attack won't completely fall off a cliff. Meanwhile, the rushing attack should be better with a deep stable of talented RBs returning.
That won't make up for all the regression coming on the passing side, but it'll make up for some. Defensive improvement will make up even more. Pitt returns seven starters on that side of the ball from a unit that ranked No. 2 in sacks per game and No. 5 in EPA/run last season. The 2021 unit finished No. 29 SP+ overall and is likely to be top 25 this fall.
Pitt's contingency plan for expected regression jives with me. West Virginia's does not.