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Following a week where three AP top-10 teams lost as favorites, more upsets should be on the horizon entering Week 6 of the college football season.
- Kentucky knocked off then-No. 6 Ole Miss for its highest-ranked road win since 1977
- Alabama snapped Georgia's 42-game regular-season winning streak
- This week, two AP top-10 teams are underdogs to lower-ranked or unranked teams
Our college football upset picks expect a dark horse ACC contender to pull a road upset and back a ranked opponent as a road underdog in arguably the most curious line of the week.
Before you lock in your picks, dive into our college football Week 6 predictions.
College football upset picks: Week 6
College football odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup i nfo.
- Boston College (+125 via bet365) at Virginia ???
- Michigan (+130 via BetMGM) at Washington ????
- Kansas (+130 via BetMGM) at Arizona State ???
Week 6 upset predictions
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Boston College unexpectedly played last week without starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who was out with an undisclosed injury.
The Eagles struggled in his absence, needing to dig out of a 14-0 early hole to nip a pesky Western Kentucky team 21-20.
If Castellanos is active this week, this three-star play will turn into a more confident four-star play. Castellanos entered last week ranked sixth among qualified FBS quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, and he was a big reason Boston College ranked first in FBS in Passing Explosiveness.
The Eagles' menacing defense will also play a big part in this road upset.
They entered last week ranked in the top ten among FBS teams in Rush Success Rate allowed and then held the Hilltoppers to 3.2 yards per carry.
It is possible this line was made with Castellanos' uncertain status in mind, and the line could jump the fence if he is declared active. That is why I am taking advantage of bet365's +125 odds while I can, hoping to turn my $10 wager into a $22.50 payout.
Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%
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I am all for recognizing when lines are considered “fishy” and typically like to be on the contrarian side of those plays.
However, while Michigan's lack of a passing attack will likely catch up to it at some point (Alex Orji has just 133 passing yards in two starts), the Wolverines are very similarly built to a Rutgers squad that just bullied the Huskies last week.
Rutgers passed for just 115 yards but ran for 184 yards on 5.6 yards per carry in a 21-18 win over Washington.
However, the biggest difference in this game is that Michigan's defensive front will not allow Washington to run for 207 yards and 7.1 yards per carry like Rutgers did last week.
The Wolverines entered last week ranked in the top 15 in the country in Rush Defense Success Rate allowed and 12th in Rush PPA allowed, then shut Minnesota's rushing attack down for a 1.5 yards per carry average on 25 rushing attempts. Michigan's ability to control both lines of scrimmage will go a long way in securing the road upset.
Michigan's implied probability of pulling the upset is as high as 46.73% based on FanDuel's +114 odds. However, the best return is at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would net $13 in profits based on the +130 odds.
Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%
After starting the year ranked No. 22 in the AP preseason poll, Kansas enters on a four-game losing streak. Two of the Jayhawks' losses have been in “home games,” but they do not have a true home-field advantage this season as their on-campus stadium is under construction.
However, this road game against Arizona State could be just what it needs to start building momentum.
I trust Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels will continue to lead the offense well, as the Jayhawks ranked in the top 21 in Rush Success, Line Yards, and Finishing Drives entering last week.
And a Jayhawks defense that ranked 26th in Pass Success and 18th in Havoc should see positive regression after allowing TCU quarterback Josh Hoover to throw for 356 yards last week.
Arizona State's three wins have come against underperforming Wyoming and Mississippi State teams and a three-point victory over Texas State out of the Sun Belt. In many ways, this will be its toughest test yet, and the Jayhawks will be up to the task.
Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 44.44%
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