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Our college football upset picks went 2-1 last week and were a field goal away from a 3-0 sweep. We are back to keep the profits coming with three more underdogs to bet as part of our college football Week 5 predictions.
- There are six undefeated teams left in the Big Ten, but our first upset pick expects one of them to fall
- Few College Football Playoff odds spots will go to Group of Five schools, but one's CFP odds will receive a massive boost if it continues to pull upsets
- A MAC team is ripe to pull another upset over an FBS Independent following Northern Illinois' massive upset of Notre Dame
Our college football upset picks begin with a Friday night kickoff. Rob Paul breaks down the week's marquee games with his college football Week 5 against the spread picks.
College football upset picks: Week 5
College football odds as of T hursday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Washington (+115 via Caesars) at Rutgers ????
- Buffalo (+200 via BetMGM) at UConn ???
- Louisiana (+145 via BetMGM) at Wake Forest ????
Week 5 upset predictions
College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Best odds: +115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 46.51%
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Rutgers was one of the two teams we cashed in on with our upset picks from last week, but now the Scarlet Knights face a tough Washington opponent playing its first road game as a Big Ten member.
The Scarlet Knights are being overvalued for a road win against a Virginia Tech team they beat by 19 points at home last year – they won by just 3 on the road last week.
In addition, we have seen this script from Rutgers before, as it is now 3-0 for the fourth straight season, then the wheels unravel in conference play.
Washington has not allowed a touchdown in three of its four games, and its defense should stack the box against Rutgers' running attack, not allowing the Scarlet Knights to control time of possession for more than 39 minutes as they did against the Hokies (their highest time of possession since 2011).
Washington's shortest moneyline odds are the +110 offered at FanDuel, so Huskies backers are getting the best return at Caesars, where a winning $10 wager would pay an $11.50 profit.
Best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Buffalo's Pete Lembo is the only first-year head coach of all MAC schools, and the early returns have been great. There is no shame in the Bulls' only loss coming on the road at then-No. 9 Missouri, Buffalo is coming off the first shocker in league play, upsetting a Northern Illinois team that won at Notre Dame in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog.
Buffalo's defense has allowed an average of 12.0 points per game against non-SEC teams this season, and it has continued its momentum from last year when it allowed 33.5 points per game over its first six games but a 21.3 points per game average over the final six.
Of the two teams UConn has beaten so far this year, only one (FAU) has a win over an FBS school, while the Huskies were outscored by 48 points in two losses to Power Four schools.
There is a big 16-cent gap between FanDuel's +184 odds and these +200 odds at BetMGM . Buffalo should have better than a one-in-three chance to win this game as the implied probability suggests, and I will be looking to make double my initial wager in profits with a moneyline play on the underdogs.
Best odds: +145 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.82%
Though Louisiana only received one first-place vote and was picked to finish third in the Sun Belt West in the preseason poll, SP+ preseason rankings gave the Ragin' Cajuns the best chance to win the Sun Belt (14.5%) and to win 11-plus games (7.6%) of any team in the West division.
Despite coming off its first loss, Louisiana out-gained a solid Tulane squad 413-355 last week and averaged 6.3 yards per rush. The Ragin Cajuns' were undone by two turnovers (one was a pick-6) and a special teams touchdown, but their offense did everything it needed to do to earn a home upset.
Wake Forest has lost back-to-back games, and is ripe for the picking, after allowing 1,079 yards of total offense in that span.
The Demon Deacons still have not been able to replace Sam Hartman at quarterback after he left for Notre Dame last year. Hank Bachmeier has a 4-0 TD-INT ratio, but his QBR has lowered for three straight weeks and he has yet to complete better than 64.3% of his passes in a game this season.
A winning $10 wager at BetMGM's +145 odds would net $14.50 in profits.
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