We are 4-2 and up six units of profit with our upset picks this college football season. We look to keep the winning wagers coming with our Week 2 upset picks based on the best NCAAF odds.
The Colorado Buffaloes sent shock waves around the country with their monumental upset of last year's national runner-up, the TCU Horned Frogs. Colorado entered the game as +20.5 underdogs, and the win was its first road victory against an AP top 20 team since 2002. Are any other ranked teams on upset alert this week?
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 2 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 2
- Purdue (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Virginia Tech ????
- Tulane (+260 via DraftKings) vs. Ole Miss ???
- Washington State (+210 via DraftKings) vs. Wisconsin ???
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College football upset predictions
The Purdue Boilermakers made our upset picks column last week, as we doubted their ability to hold serve at home against the defending Mountain West champion Fresno State Bulldogs. However, Purdue's offense did some good things against a Bulldogs defense that is supposed to be its strength, as evidenced by its No. 58 preseason ranking in defensive SP+ compared to its offense rankin g 85th.
This is still a Boilermakers team that ended a 20-year drought in competing in the Big Ten Championship last year, and they had plenty of chances to beat a defending conference champion, leading by 11 in the third quarter and three points with under five minutes to go. Texas transfer Hudson Card looked comfortable in a new scheme, throwing for 254 yards and two touchdowns, and is capable of carrying the offense when it struggles to run the football (the Boilermakers ranked 105th in rushing last year and ran for just 109 yards against Fresno State).
Virginia Tech is ripe for an upset, as the team failed to score more than 30 points in any game last season. The Hokies averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in their season-opening win against Old Dominion, and it is dangerous to put everything on quarterback Grant Wells' shoulders, as he threw nine interceptions last year. This is a head coaching matchup of two form er Big Ten defensive coordinators, but we trust Purdue head coach Ryan Walters to get his defense fixed quicker, instilling some of the concepts that led his Illinois team to the No. 1 scoring defense in the country.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook where one can back the underdogs at higher than +120 odds.
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The Tulane Green Wave were on upset alert last week against a South Alabama team that returned 19 starters from a squad that won double-digit games last year. Tulane kicked off as six-point favorites but ended the game with 13 unanswered points to win by 20 and cover comfortably.
Green Wave quarterback Michael Pratt's only incompletion of the game was a drop by wide receiver Jha'Quan Jackson, and it was not like he was dinking and dunking all over the field, as Tulane had five passes of at least 33 yards.
Tulane finished in the top 37 of offensive and defensive SP+ last season and proved it was the best non-Power Five team last year with a statement win over an explosive USC Trojans team in the Cotton Bowl. The Green Wave will not mind getting into a shootout with Lane Kiffin's squad, whose defense regressed from 25th in defensive SP+ in 2021 to 49th in 2022 and ranked outside the top 50 in Havoc last year. Kiffin has brought in 41 transfers over the previous two seasons, and that potential lack of cohesion could mean its unraveling in what is one of Tulane's biggest home games in school history.
DraftKings' +260 odds represent great value f or underdog backers, as the next-closest odds are the +245 found at FanDuel.
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The Wisconsin Badgers were supposed to shock the college football world by abandoning their usual power running game in favor of an Air Raid offense under new offensive coordinator Phil Longo. However, the Badgers ran 40 times in Week 1 against Buffalo compared to 31 pass attempts. In addition, quarterback Tanner Mordecai did not look entirely comfortable in the new system, averaging 7.9 yards per completion and throwing two interceptions, which resulted in a 36.0 QBR.
Wisconsin ran for 314 yards and 7.9 yards per carry and now faces a conundrum in what its offensive identity will be this week. However, we know Washington State's defense will be up to the challenge after last year's 17-14 upset of the Badgers in Madison. The Cougars ran 25 fewer offensive plays and were outgained by 148 yards, but held up well, allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, and at the time, held Badgers running back Braelon Allen under 100 yards for the second time in 11 games.
Revenge will be on Wisconsin's mind, but Washington State lost to two of the Pac-12's top three teams (Oregon and eventual conference champion Utah) by a combined seven points at home last year. The Cougars are 5-7 straight up as home underdogs since 2016 and went 5-2 against the spread at home a season ago (2-1 ATS as home 'dogs).
Head to DraftKings for the best value, as it is the only shop offering better than +202 odds to back the 'dog.
College football upset picks made 9/6/2023 at 6:44 a.m. ET.
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