College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 2: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

There should be plenty of opportunities for upsets amid a loaded Week 2 college football slate, and I have my three favorites outlined in our Week 2 college football upsets.

No AP top 25 team lost to an unranked opponent last week, but of the three ranked teams that did lose, two were considered upsets. 

Despite being ranked 13 spots higher in the AP poll, No. 7 Notre Dame kicked off as a 3-point road underdog to No. 20 Texas A&M and beat the Aggies 23-13 for its first win over a ranked SEC opponent in 20 years.

Elsewhere, USC beat another ranked LSU as a 4-point underdog at Allegiant Stadium. Despite being a neutral venue, it was a pro-Trojans crowd, given the proximity to the USC campus.

Michigan is a 7.5-point home underdog to Texas despite the Wolverines winning 28 straight home games in August and September since 2015. But does that clash of AP top-10 teams make the list of the top college football upset picks this week?

College football upset picks: Week 2

College football odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Army (+155 via bet365) at Florida Atlantic ????
• Iowa State (+120 via bet365) at Iowa ????
• Mississippi State (+215 via Caesars) at Arizona State ???

Week 2 upset predictions

College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.

Army's run rate dropped from 90% in 2022 to 81% in 2023, but after attempting seven times more running plays than passing plays in the season opener against Lehigh (56 carries to 8 pass attempts), are the Black Knights getting back to more of the triple-option team that they hav e been in the past? Or did they simply use their ground game more to bully an inferior opponent? That unknown makes them a tough prep for Florida Atlantic this week.

One thing that has always made Army difficult to play against is its ability to control time of possession, and the Black Knights averaged more than 10 plays on their five touchdown drives last week.

An FAU team that ranks 121st in returning production will have its hands full with Army, especially if its offense that returned one starter on the offensive line and no running back that ran for more than 120 yards last season cannot generate enough first downs to give its defense a rest.

Army is as low as a +140 underdog at FanDuel, so making this wager at bet365 would profit bettors $1.50 more in comparison with a winning $10 wager ($15.50 profit at bet365 vs. $14 at FanDuel).

Best odds: +155 via bet365 | Implied probabil ity: 39.22%

Iowa beat Iowa State 20-13 in Ames last season, but the score looked a lot more respectable after the Cyclones scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to cut into a 20-3 deficit. However, perhaps that game always should have been closer as it was, as Iowa only made nine first downs to Iowa State's 19, and the Hawkeyes were out-gained by 65 yards and ran 24 fewer plays. 

Iowa State's improvement from 1-8 in the Big 12 in 2022 to 6-3 last year was the biggest improvement of any team in college football. And after Rocco Becht, the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, broke school records for touchdown passes (23) and passing yards (3,120), I have confidence he can lead the Cyclones to a road upset now that he has one year of playing in this rivalry under his belt.

Iowa State has as high as a 47.62% implied probability with DraftKings' +110 odds, so the best value for Cyclones backers is at bet365, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $22.

Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Mississippi State was led by a former defensive coordinator, Zach Arnett, last year, but the hire of former Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is what the Bulldogs need to bring their program back to the high-scoring juggernaut it was when the late Mike Leach was head coach.

Arizona State is the only Big 12 team projected to finish 77th or worse in both Offensive and Defensive SP+. You know last year's 3-9 record was bad when one of the only things the Sun Devils could claim as a success was an offensive line that ranked in the top 60 in pressure rate allowed.

Head coach Kenny Dillingham has brought in 60 transfers over the last two seasons, so about all Arizona State can claim as an advantage in this game is home field, as experience or more success from a season ago is not working in its favor.

Even if our first two picks fail, I would still profit for the day if this wager hits tha nks to Caesars' generous +215 odds. That means a $10 winning wager would net $21.50 in profits.

Best odds: +215 via Caesars | Implied probability: 31.75%

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