Two of the seven Week 0 college football matchups ended in upsets. Are there more in store this week? Read on for our Week 1 upset picks based on the best NCAAF odds.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks pulled the first upset of the college football season, beating UTEP as slight -105 moneyline underdogs in their first game at the FBS level. However, the biggest upset of the day belonged to the UMass Minutemen, as they knocked off New Mexico State on the road, cashing tickets with moneyline odds as high as +230.
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 1 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 1
- Hawai'i (+146 via FanDuel) vs. Stanford ????
- Fresno State (+160 via FanDuel) vs. Purdue ????
- Louisiana Monroe (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Army ??
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College football upset predictions
The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors did not look like a team deserving of such massive odds (+12000) to win the Mountain West after losing by a touchdown at Vanderbilt. The Hawai'i run defense looked stout, holding the Commodores to just 42 yards rushing on 26 attempts. Now the Rainbow Warriors are licking their chops to face a Stanford team whose cupboard looks bare under first-year head coach Troy Taylor.
The Cardinal are one of the most inexperienced teams at quarterback (their leading returning passer had just nine attempts for 65 yards), and no running back from last year on the current roster rushed for at least four yards per carry.
We saw what the Rainbow Warriors could do to disrupt an offense with a shoddy offensive line last week, and Stanford brings back just two offensive linemen who have ever started a game. And on defense, Stanford lost six of its top seven tacklers, which is concerning facing a Hawai'i offense that amassed 391 total yards of offense against an SEC defense last week.
While most Power 5 teams got stronger through the transfer portal, many key contributors left the Stanford program after former head coach David Shaw resigned. This is the only game the Cardinal project to be favored in all season, but we project them to be in for a long season after starting 0-1.
Hawai'i is as short as a +140 underdog at Caesars, so we are getting the best value at FanDuel.
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In this matchup, we are excited to back a Fresno State Bulldogs team that is coming off a Mountain West championship (four in the previous 10 years) as the underdog against a Purdue Boilermakers team that should struggle while undergoing a rebuild in the Big Ten.
Fresno State showed its resiliency last year, overcoming a quarterback (Jake Haener) who was not 100% healthy through a 1-4 start to finish with nine consecutive wins and an average margin of victory of 20.4 points per game in that span. The Bulldogs lost Haener, but head coach Jeff Tedford knows how to deal with turnover early in his coaching tenures, as his last two teams in his second year with the program won a combined 17 games. He can build around arguably the best offensive and defensive lines in the conference and lean on a stout defense that finished last season ranked 36th in SP+. Fresno State's lofty defensive ranking is a product of returning eight players who played 400 or more snaps last year.
The experienced Bulldogs defense should frustrate a Purdue offense that is learning a brand new Air Raid system under first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell. In addition, the Boilermakers return just 50% of their overall production from last year.
With an entire offseason to prepare, a head coaching disparity can make a big difference in a game's outcome. Tedford has a massive advantage in that regard, taking teams to 11 bowl games in his 16 seasons (and finishing in the AP top 10 once), compared to Purdue's Ryan Walters, coaching in his first collegiate game.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook at which one can back the Bulldogs at higher than +155 odds.
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This is our biggest upset pick of the week and the only one with which we are backing a double-digit underdog.
One should not compare this game too much to Notre Dame's 42-3 beatdown of Navy in Dublin, other than to glean how much of an advantage it is to face a triple-option team with a whole offseason to prepare, as opposed to playing such an opponent mid-season.
An Army team that finished .500 last season (two of its six wins were against FCS teams) lost four of its first five games, and while it is 3-2 in its last five season openers, it has been held to 14 or fewer points twice.
The Black Knights' challenge to score points is even greater now that cut blocks on the perimeter will be officiated differently. And Army has five inexperienced quarterbacks on the roster, which is significant considering the quarterback has been the team's leading rusher every year since 2016.
UL Monroe projects to have the Sun Belt West's worst defense (126th in the country per SP+) but allowed fewer than 5.7 yards per play five times (and went 4-1), so its offense is capable enough to pull an outright upset if the Warhawks wisely spent the offseason scheming ways to slow down the triple option.
Considering UL Monroe has gone 4-8 in both seasons under head coach Terry Bowden, taking the 10 points might be the safer play, but we are looking for a bigger return with this outright upset pick.
ULM is as low as +300 at Caesars and bet365, making the +340 odds at FanDuel a steal.
College football upset picks made 08/30/2023 at 7:39 a.m. ET.
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