College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 1: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

Did the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets opening the college football season in Week 0 with a massive upset of the Florida State Seminoles set the tone for this week?

I nailed all three of my college football upset picks from Week 0, with Georgia Tech, Nevada, and Delaware State covering double-digit point spreads by a combined 54.5 points.

While I didn't take any of those teams to win outright given the small four-game Week 0 slate, bettors would have profited +2.65 units when backing all three underdogs' moneylines. Georgia Tech even snapped a 15-game losing streak to AP top-10 opponents.

Beginning with our Week 1 college football upset picks, I get back to selecting three more traditional underdog moneyline picks ahead of the jam-packed schedule.

College football upset picks: Week 1

College football odds as of Wednesday a nd subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Florida (+120 via Betway) vs. Miami ????
• Miami OH (+120 via Betway) at Northwestern ????
• Charlotte (+260 via Betway) vs. JMU ??

Week 1 upset predictions

College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.

Florida's college football projected win total is 4.5, which seems fair considering six of its final seven games are against teams ranked inside the AP top 15.

However, too much of the narrative surrounding Florida's Week 1 game is tied to Gators head coach Billy Napier being on the hot seat. Meanwhile, Mario Cristobal, the head coach on the other sideline, has gone a disappointing 12-13 for Miami.

Napier led the team to a win in his Florida head coaching debut in 2022 as a home underdog against Utah, the only time the Gators have been underdogs in their home opener since 1990.

Graham Mertz produced a quietly good season while finishing in the top 35 in Total QBR last year. I expect the Gators to look more cohesive early than the Hurrican es, who are fielding transfers at arguably the two most important skill positions (Cam Ward at quarterback, and Damien Martinez at running back).

I'm risking $10 on the Gators outright in the hopes of returning a $12 profit as part of our Week 1 college football predictions.

Best odds: +120 via Betway | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Northwestern is another team with a win total of 4.5, and that makes sense given that it will arguably get the worst home-field advantage of any Power 5 team this season.

The Wildcats will play in a temporary structure around the lacrosse and soccer stadium that seats around 15,000 people while Ryan Field undergoes an $800-million renovation.

Meanwhile, Miami OH is the defending MAC champion, and the team returns its quarterback (Brett Gabbert), four of its starting five offensive linemen, and the conference Defensive Player of the Year (Matt Salopek).

A winning $10 wager would pay out $22 from one of our best sportsbooks.

Best odds: +120 via Betway | Implied probability: 45.45%

James Madison has been outstanding in its two years at the FBS level, going a combined 19-5 while winning 13 of its 16 Sun Belt games. However, I&#3 9;m taking a flier and thinking the Dukes will struggle early after losing head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and returning just two of their 17 all-conference players from last season. 

Charlotte finished last among all AAC teams in SP+ last season (129th overall), and it brought in 51 transfers over the last two campaigns in an effort to improve. There are plenty of former three- or four-star transfers on defense. And the school's new quarterback is former Florida passer Max Brown, who lost to two AP top-nine teams by a combined 11 points last year (Missouri and Florida State).  

A winning $10 wager would pay out $36.

Best odds: +260 via Betway | Implied probability: 27.78%

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