The college football season kicks off with seven Week 0 matchups, two of which involve AP top 25 teams. Read on for our Week 0 upset picks based on the best NCAAF odds.
The first college football matchup of the season is played outside the United States, as the Navy Midshipmen and Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet in Dublin for the first time since 2012. But the highest-ranked team in action is the No. 6 USC Trojans, who host the San Jose State Spartans.
With Notre Dame and USC each favored by at least 20.5 points and unlikely to be upset, that leaves five matchups with more likely underdog winners. Which 'dogs do we have the most confidence in to start the season with a victory?
Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 0 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 0
- Jacksonville State (-105 via BetMGM, FanDuel) vs. UTEP ?????
- Ohio (+128 via BetRivers) vs. San Diego State ????
- UMass +7.5 (-112 via BetRivers) vs. New Mexico State ???
College football upset predictions
Jacksonville State is playing its first game after transitioning from FCS to FBS. While common thought would suggest it should take years for former FCS teams to establish themselves at the FBS level, the Gamecocks are looking to follow James Madison's blueprint, as the Dukes went 8-3 last season in their first year after the transition.
Jacksonville State plays a lightning-fast, up-tempo style under Rich Rodriguez, who has been a head coach at three different Power Five schools. The Gamecocks return plenty of experien ce at all the most critical positions for their unique offense, with Zion Webb back under center (2,384 total yards and 23 touchdowns last year) and ready to hand off to the electric running back tandem of Anwar Lewis and Ron Wiggins, who combined for 1,279 yards rushing and 21 touchdowns.
BetMGM and FanDuel have the best odds for this upset, as DraftKings provides slightly worse value at -108.
The Ohio Bobcats had a massive turnaround in Year 2 of the Tim Albin regime, going from three wins to 10 and entering the season with the second-best odds to win the MAC.
Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke became the first Bobcat since 1996 to win the MAC Player of the Year Award, and he may show some rust after being just nine months recovered from last year's ACL injury that abruptly ended his season. However, despite the injury, Rourke still finished in the top 10 nationa lly in completion percentage, passing yards per game, efficiency, and total offense.
And with Rourke only being named the starting quarterback just on Monday of this week, it likely hurt San Diego State's preparation, as there was a good chance backup quarterback CJ Harris, who led the Bobcats to a win in the Arizona Bowl, was needed to begin the season. The Aztecs should struggle defensively early as they return just 40% of their production on that side of the ball (123rd in FBS) and face a quarterback in Rourke that was given a 92.0 PFF grade.
BetRivers provides the best value for those expecting an upset, as the next closest shop (BetMGM) offers +115 odds.
UMass projects to be one of FBS's worst teams, as it will likely be favored in just one game this season, against FCS foe Merrimack. As such, we still consider it an “upset” if the Minutemen stay within this numb er.
UMass can rely on 15 starters returning (seven offense, eight defense), but quarterback Brady Olson finished with a disappointing 2-8 TD-INT ratio last year, and Clemson and Georgia Tech transfer Taisun Phommachanh has thrown just 53 passes in his career.
Optimists say the Minutemen have a cohesive veteran offensive line that returns four starters, and head coach Don Brown's “bleed the clock and shorten the game” approach to protect his porous offense gets some aid with the rule change that the clock no longer stops after a first down. Thus, this is a lower-confidence, three-star play, with the best bet in this game is taking the Minutemen on the point spread and not winning the game outright.
One will find UMass at +6.5 most often, with FanDuel the only shop at +7. However, BetRivers has to be the preferred shop for point-spread bettors, as getting the hook provides much more se curity than rooting for the underdog to stay within a touchdown.
College football upset picks made 8/23/2023 at 7:51 a.m. ET.
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