After last week’s Stability Mismatches produced a record of 8-6 ATS, running the season mark to 16-16 ATS (50%), I’m here to unveil the Week 3 college football plays that qualify for my long-running system that quantifies the stability level of all FBS teams entering a season. These will be the final plays I publish for the system this season as after this point, I believe the oddsmakers will have caught up, as they typically do.
For those unfamiliar, this system, which I’ve employed for the last 11 years without a losing season, measures one team’s stability against another’s. Using a time-test point assigning process for coaches, quarterbacks and returning starters, I produce an overall stability score for each team. When the difference between these scores is 8 or higher, I consider it a “Stability Mismatch.”
Obviously, my 11-year streak of not having a losing record is on the line here. But as I explained last week, some extenuating circumstances have challenged the system this year. First is the presence of new QB/new coaching staffs at schools that have been together at other programs, mainly due to the transfer portal. This has led to at least three losses thus far. Second, there have been unusually high point spreads, such as Michigan -53.5 last week versus Hawaii. I wouldn’t have bet that line with someone else’s money, regardless of the stability variation. For this week, we have Tennessee laying 47.5 points to Akron. These are things to consider going forward.
The important thing to note here is that the stability score difference between the teams has NOTHING to do with the point spread for a given game. I am simply making the assumption that oddsmakers have not given enough credence to the stability difference and that their line is off because of it.
Just below is a list of the Top College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 3. The Stability Chart for all 131 FBS teams is attached here. Again, this will be the last week that I offer up the plays, as I typically believe that after two or three games for each team, the lines offered more accurately reflect the current strength of teams. However, history has shown that you should feel comfortable employing this strategy for this final week.