The 2023 college football season is finally upon us! That means it’s time to get our last-minute win total bets locked in before the ball kicks off on Saturday and I’ve got a juicy slate of high-edge plays I’m eager to bet. In case you missed my introduction, I have created my own proprietary model, the T Shoe Index (TSI) to power rate every team and project every single game of the season using a data-driven formula. Here are the plays TSI indicates are the best value of the season:
Season Win Total Over Bets
Who doesn’t love a good over bet? It makes watching the games so much more enjoyable and less anxiety-stricken every time someone scores – or maybe that’s just me; however, there often isn’t as much value on over bets, as we know the general public loves to bet overs for this reason, often creating value on under bets.
Liberty Flames
The T Shoe Index has sniffed out some quality win total over bets for us this year, beginning with Jamey Chadwell’s Liberty Flames at Over 9 wins (via DraftKings) at a reasonable -115 odds, indicating an implied probability of 53.5% that Liberty goes over this total. TSI, however, projects Liberty at 10.2 wins this year, as they have the worst schedule in FBS after joining Conference USA this year, having been independent previously. This implies a whopping 92.96% chance that they go over the win total, giving us an edge of 39.46%.
Pick: Liberty Over 9 wins (-115)