College football regular-season finale betting systems

In seemingly the blink of an eye, we have arrived at the regular-season finale games for most FBS teams in college football. Some teams will move on to conference championships after this week and others to bowl games, but for many teams, the upcoming weekend’s games are the end of the season. Of course, a lot of emotion comes with that, even more so if we’re talking about senior day festivities or the ends of competitive athletic careers. There are even unique circumstances in which teams don’t know what the future holds as it might depend on how they fare in the final game. Clearly, the stakes season finales carry and the emotional motivations teams bring to games have a huge impact on the results.

As a college football bettor, I know that special games, whether they are season openers, rivalry contests, revenge matchups or a combination of those factors and others, offer unique circumstances that require special consideration. As such, it was an ideal time to go back and look at the recent data regarding teams playing in their regular-season finales to see if I could uncover any systemic advantages as we head to this week’s games. Like in my other system articles, I analyzed home/road scenarios, line ranges, statistical comparisons of the teams and several other variables.

I was able to come up with eight highly successful angles that have developed in recent years in college football season finale games. These only include regular-season prescheduled games, not conference championship or bowl games. Here they are along with my theories as to why they have been successful and which games will be effected this weekend.

Since 2015, HOME FAVORITES of more than 20 points are 51-5 SU but just 22-34 ATS (39.3%) in regular-season finales.

Analysis: In many regular-season finales, the teams are either conference foes or intense rivals. These aren’t great circumstances for laying a lot of points, as underdogs typically gain a lot of motivation from both that angle and not wanting to end the season on a bad note.

Potential teams to FADE in Week 13: GEORGIA (-35) vs. Georgia Tech, LIBERTY (-23.5) vs. New Mexico State, ALABAMA (-22) vs. Auburn

Since 2015, HOME UNDERDOGS of 7 points or more are just 19-94 SU and 44-68-1 ATS (39.3%) in regular-season finales.

Analysis: Teams playing as heavy home underdogs in the final week of the season are probably either not very good or are hosting a quality team with some stakes to play for. In any case, these overmatched home dogs don’t fare well.

Potential teams to FADE in Week 13: WESTERN MICHIGAN (+8) vs. Toledo, CALIFORNIA (+10) vs. UCLA, INDIANA (+11) vs. Purdue, MIAMI FL (+7) vs. Pittsburgh, UMASS (+21) vs. Army, South Florida (+19) vs. UCF, TEMPLE (+12) vs. East Carolina, FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) vs. Western Kentucky, NORTHWESTERN (+14) vs. Illinois, COLORADO (+30) vs. Utah, LOUISIANA TECH (+17) vs. UAB, TEXAS A&M (+10) vs. LSU, VANDERBILT (+15) vs. Tennessee, ARKANSAS STATE (+13.5) vs. Troy, FIU (+19.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State

In regular-season finales since 2015, TEAMS SCORING more than 43 PPG are 33-7 SU and 25-14-1 ATS (64.1%) versus teams scoring less.

Analysis: It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to fade the most explosive offenses in their final regular-season games. It might be their last opportunity to impress the pollsters or bowl committees.

Teams to BACK in Week 13: OHIO STATE (-7.5) vs. Michigan, TENNESEE (-15) vs. Vanderbilt

In regular-season finales since 2015, when there has been a difference of four wins or more between the teams, the BETTER TEAM has gone 118-14 SU and 75-56-1 ATS (57.3%) overall. Digging a bit deeper, when the BETTER TEAM has been the ROAD TEAM in the matchup, the record has been 58-9 SU and 42-25 ATS (62.7%).

Analysis: This is somewhat similar to No. 2 above, where it turns out that the home-field advantage hasn’t amounted to much when the host is overwhelmed. In most cases, these better road teams are playing for high stakes, whereas the hosts are not.

ROAD Teams to BACK in Week 13: UCLA (-10) vs. California, UCF (-19.5) vs. South Florida, ILLINOIS (-14) vs. Northwestern, LSU (-10) vs. Texas A&M, TENNESEE (-15) vs. Vanderbilt, TROY (-13.5) vs. Arkansas State

One of the most intriguing regular-season finale angles involves those teams trying to clinch bowl eligibility, as they are sitting with five wins. Since 2015, when those five-win teams faced teams with better records in the season finales, they have gone 23-32 SU but 33-21-1 ATS (61.1%).

Analysis: Trying to clinch a bowl bid in your final opportunity is obviously one of the biggest motivational factors a college athlete can have. It is the difference between winning and extending the season for a month or simply being done after a loss. Even against better teams, these bowl-hungry teams come to play.

Teams to BACK against the spread in Week 13: MISSOURI (+3) vs. Arkansas, GEORGIA TECH (+35) at Georgia, MIAMI FL (+7) vs. Pittsburgh, MICHIGAN STATE (+18) at Penn State, GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+4.5) vs. Appalachian State, FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+7) vs. Western Kentucky, RICE (+14) at North Texas, VANDERBILT (+15) vs. Tennessee, AUBURN (+22) at Alabama, UTEP (+18) at UTSA

  
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By VSiN