College football recruiting rankings help predict success

College football recruiting ranking provide clues to success.

College sports are ever-evolving, and the recent phenomenon in acquiring talent relies heavily on both courting high school stars and the transfer portal. Simply put, it has changed the way programs build their teams, and it can have an instant impact. Weak teams can reload quickly. Strong teams can be decimated in the same fashion. Patience to wait out maturing incoming classes is no longer mandated. Essentially, this is the nature of the recruiting game nowadays, and coaches have to be able to both sell their programs to experienced players and develop young ones. Being versed in the recruiting game shouldn’t only be considered essential for coaches, however, as those betting should have a good handle on it as well. There is naturally a direct relationship between the success a team has on the recruiting trail to what it has on the field.

The importance of recruiting has never been greater than it is now in college sports, and all of us have been thrown for a loop lately by not only the extraordinary growth of the transfer portal but also by the havoc that COVID-19 wreaked on the sports world. We are finally getting close to clearing out the remaining players competing on that extra year(s) of eligibility they were granted because of the pandemic. These things have made life a little more difficult for bettors who study recruiting rankings as a fundamental part of their offseason handicapping. 

It was a few years ago that 247sports, the source I use for my recruiting ranks article every year, added a “transfer” rating to their “recruit” ratings, as well as combined the two ratings into an “overall” rating. Because of the transfer portal's impact in quickly reshaping rosters, I was forced to implement this overall rating into my annual study.

The recruiting game is quite interesting, and 247Sports covers it as well or better than anyone. This site logs all of the recruits/transfers for every team each season and generates a numerical grading process based on the combined scores of the players a team signs. In 2020, I started looking hard at these numerical recruiting rankings of the FBS programs over the last decade and more. I have found, as usual, that anything numerically rated can be turned into useful foundational betting analysis.

Most fans and bettors typically know who tends to do well annually in the recruiting game, and the usual suspects have once again risen to the top of the rankings for their 2023 classes. Alabama, Georgia, Texas, Ohio State, and LSU comprise the Top 5. These programs' consistent on-field success can easily be attributed accordingly. Alabama has scored the highest national rating on 247Sports in 10 of the last 13 seasons, with Georgia filling in the gaps in two other years and Texas A&M filling the final void in 2022.

None of what I just shared about the high-ranking teams in recruiting is earth-shattering news, but with all that said, finding other lower-radar teams that might be ready to surprise because of unusually good or bad recent recruiting classes can be crucial to success in betting college football. Similarly, knowing which teams are trending in the right or wrong direction regarding their recruiting success can also benefit the handicapper.

Of course, and this is the third straight year that I will emphasize this, there’s also the matter of taking recruits and making a team out of them, otherwise known as coaching. Knowing which programs make the most or least out of their recruiting classes should also be a fundamental part of your college football knowledge base.

I will address all of those subjects in this article, including projecting this year’s standings for the newly reshaped conferences based SOLELY on the recruiting rankings from 247Sports and a predictive formula that I was able to uncover using regression analysis. This is always an interesting topic that I have now made a permanent fixture in my preparations for each coming college season.

2023 Projected Standings Using the Last Four Years of Recruiting Rankings

After compiling all of the year-by-year recruiting rankings for the FBS teams since 2007, comparing different options to the actual records and my power ratings that teams closed at in a given season, I was able to determine that the most predictive time frame of a team’s success on the field came when considering its Last Four Recruiting Classes. It was greater than one year, two years, three years, and any special combined formulas I derived using the 1-4 year window. This changed since last year, as I used the three-year window as the basis. However, I believe that the extra year of eligibility granted during the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the value of age and experience over the last two seasons. As is the case with any statistical study, there are exceptions to the rule. Still, knowing what I know from 20+ years in this industry on both sides of the counter, I am comfortable using this four-year time window to analyze teams’ prospects for a season. That said, I will analyze the results of this again next year to see if the results return to the pre-COVID norms.

Here are the would-be projected standings for the 2023 season for each conference using their combined average rank for their last three recruiting classes (2023, 2022, 2021, 2020). Remember that these projections include no other factor than the perceived talent level of the players when they signed into each team’s recruiting class.

View the College Football Recruiting Rankings Here

As you look at the projected standings, you will see that there aren’t any major surprises projected at the top of any of the Power 5 conference standings. The Group of 5 conference projections have changed dramatically over the course of a year, mostly due to all of the realignment across the country. Some unusual teams, such as SMU and Florida International, are now leaders in their respective leagues for their recruiting efforts. We’ll see how this plays out this fall. It will also be interesting to see how the new additions to the Big 12 shape up. Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, and BYU had grown accustomed to recruiting against the American Conference and Independents. Hopefully, you can find more useful tidbits as you study the Recruiting Rankings chart by conference.

Teams that do the most/least with their recruiting classes

Signing a quality recruiting class is only the start of the story. Coaches need to develop the individual talent they acquire and mold them into a functioning unit in order to be successful. Some programs have demonstrated this ability far better than others. While some programs take a modestly rated recruiting class and make a winning program out of it, there are others that take a highly rated class and underachieve on the field. Let’s look at some of the programs that have distinctly demonstrated the opposite ends of this spectrum.

The teams below are sorted by the difference between their average national recruiting rankings over the last five years and their end-of-year power rating on my scale. As you analyze the merits of why each of these teams appears on the list, be sure to consider which programs have undergone coaching changes in recent years and, as a result, how relevant this info might be for 2023.

Top 20 teams whose on-field performance consistently exceeds its recruiting rating

As you look at the teams on the “overachieving” list, you’ll see a common trend: three of the top four programs are service academies, a credit to the quality character of kids those teams recruit.

Also of note here is that of the top nine teams, for the second straight year, seven of them are the same. New entries are BYU and Tulsa, replacing UCF and Liberty. This is a sign of programs with a consistent method of operation.

All but five of the teams on this list are from Group of 5 conferences. Only Iowa State (#13), UCF (#16), Cincinnati (#17), and Kansas State (#18) represent the Power 5 leagues, and all are from the Big 12. Truthfully, it’s hard to compete consistently for conference titles in the Power 5 leagues if you aren’t recruiting consistently well. It will be interesting to see how much more effective teams like Cincinnati and UCF are in their recruiting efforts going forward with the step up in conference.

1. ARMY: Recruit Rank – 123.4, SM PR Rank – 72, Difference +51.4
2. AIR FORCE: Recruit Rank – 111.2, SM PR Rank – 62.4, Difference +48.8
3. APPALACHIAN ST: Recruit Rank – 92.2, SM PR Rank – 47.6, Difference +44.6
4. NAVY: Recruit Rank – 121.2, SM PR Rank – 78.8, Difference +42.4
5. TULSA: Recruit Rank – 111.8, SM PR Rank – 73.4, Difference +38.4
6. OHIO U: Recruit Rank – 117.4, SM PR Rank – 83.2, Difference +34.2
7. BYU: Recruit Rank – 73.8, SM PR Rank – 44, Difference +29.8
8. WYOMING: Recruit Rank – 110.6, SM PR Rank – 82, Difference +28.6
9. BUFFALO: Recruit Rank – 109.4, SM PR Rank – 80.8, Difference +28.6
10. LA LAFAYETTE: Recruit Rank – 90, SM PR Rank – 61.6, Difference +28.4
11. LIBERTY: Recruit Rank – 98.7, SM PR Rank – 70.3, Difference +28.3
12. FRESNO ST: Recruit Rank – 87.8, SM PR Rank – 60.8, Difference +27
13. IOWA ST: Recruit Rank – 50.8, SM PR Rank – 24.4, Difference +26.4
14. UAB: Recruit Rank – 97.6, SM PR Rank – 71.6, Difference +26
15. UTAH ST: Recruit Rank – 106, SM PR Rank – 82, Difference +24
16. CINCINNATI: Recruit Rank – 51.6, SM PR Rank – 28, Difference +23.6
17. UCF: Recruit Rank – 57.2, SM PR Rank – 33.6, Difference +23.6
18. KANSAS ST: Recruit Rank – 59.6, SM PR Rank – 36.6, Difference +23
19. BOISE ST: Recruit Rank – 62.2, SM PR Rank – 40, Difference +22.2
20. COASTAL CAROLINA: Recruit Rank – 104, SM PR Rank – 81.8, Difference +22.2

Top 20 teams whose recruiting ratings have exceeded their on-field performance

The programs on this “underachieving” list are those that, more often than not, are forced to fire their coaches due to a lack of success. They recruit fairly well but are typically found at or near the bottom of their conference standings. For a second straight season, Rutgers holds the dubious honor of the top spot.

Essentially the teams on this list don’t do nearly as well as what 247sports thought its signees were capable of.

Overall, this list is dominated by Power 5 conference schools, who use the lure of playing in big-time college football games to sign good athletes but haven’t had the same luck transferred to the field. You might be surprised to see some programs like Florida State, North Carolina, or Tennessee on this list. Another good year or two on the field under their newer coaches could see them graduate from it.

The only four Group of 5 schools you’ll find among this collection of underachievers are Florida International (#5), UNLV (#13), and Massachusetts (#17).

Five teams from this group have welcomed in new head coaches for 2023, Colorado, Stanford, South Florida, UNLV, and Nebraska. It will be interesting to follow the direction of those programs in the coming seasons.

1. RUTGERS: Recruit Rank – 51.8, SM PR Rank – 97.6, Difference +-45.8
2. VANDERBILT: Recruit Rank – 49, SM PR Rank – 93.2, Difference +-44.2
3. GEORGIA TECH: Recruit Rank – 42, SM PR Rank – 78.4, Difference +-36.4
4. MARYLAND: Recruit Rank – 32.2, SM PR Rank – 65.6, Difference +-33.4
5. FLA INTERNATIONAL: Recruit Rank – 82.6, SM PR Rank – 114.8, Difference +-32.2
6. FLORIDA ST: Recruit Rank – 18.6, SM PR Rank – 50.6, Difference +-32
7. COLORADO: Recruit Rank – 51.4, SM PR Rank – 82, Difference +-30.6
8. STANFORD: Recruit Rank – 31.6, SM PR Rank – 61.8, Difference +-30.2
9. SOUTH FLORIDA: Recruit Rank – 75.8, SM PR Rank – 105.6, Difference +-29.8
10. ARKANSAS: Recruit Rank – 29, SM PR Rank – 56.8, Difference +-27.8
11. KANSAS: Recruit Rank – 63.8, SM PR Rank – 91.2, Difference +-27.4
12. SOUTH CAROLINA: Recruit Rank – 32, SM PR Rank – 57, Difference +-25
13. UNLV: Recruit Rank – 89.2, SM PR Rank – 114.2, Difference +-25
14. ARIZONA: Recruit Rank – 56.2, SM PR Rank – 80.4, Difference +-24.2
15. MIAMI FL: Recruit Rank – 14.4, SM PR Rank – 38.2, Difference +-23.8
16. NORTH CAROLINA: Recruit Rank – 18.8, SM PR Rank – 41.6, Difference +-22.8
17. MASSACHUSETTS: Recruit Rank – 106.4, SM PR Rank – 125.8, Difference +-19.4
18. DUKE: Recruit Rank – 58.8, SM PR Rank – 78, Difference +-19.2
19. NEBRASKA: Recruit Rank – 22.2, SM PR Rank – 41, Difference +-18.8
20. TENNESSEE: Recruit Rank – 17.8, SM PR Rank – 36.4, Difference +-18.6

Teams whose recruiting appears to be trending in each direction

The recent success or lack thereof on the recruiting trail for teams figures to have a direct relationship with how they fare on the field in the coming years. Teams whose classes are improving consistently are likely to become more prominent on the national/conference stage, while those whose class strengths are declining could be experiencing downturns in the near future. There are also unique situations where a staff added an unusually highly rated or lowly rated class in a given year as opposed to typical results. Let’s look at teams on both ends of the recruiting momentum spectrum.

22 teams whose recruiting rankings are trending in a POSITIVE direction

Baylor (Last four recruiting ranks: 54, 45, 42, 36)

Dave Aranda took over a Baylor team still reeling from off-the-field problems. His efforts in recruiting have it back on the right track, as each of their last three classes has been better than the prior one. However, the Bears still have a way to go to catch up to Texas and Oklahoma.

Buffalo (Last three recruiting ranks: sub-100. Prior 10 years: no such occurrences)

Maurice Linguist inherited a Buffalo team that was trending in the wrong direction in terms of recruiting. His first three classes have ranked 99^th in 2021, 75^th last year, and 79^th this spring. The latter two are very high by MAC standards. It could be a good sign for a team that reached a bowl game last year.

BYU (Last five recruiting ranks: 81, 78, 75, 57, 51)

The step up to the Big 12 conference has had a good impact on BYU’s recruiting rankings recently, and the 51st-ranked class of 2023 is the highest ranking for the program since 2016. However, it’s not quite Big 12 caliber yet and needs to keep trending upward for this team to compete for conference titles.

Colorado (2023 recruiting rank: 21. Prior two-year avg: 62)

Hiring Head Coach Deion Sanders was huge on the recruiting trail. How long will it take for the results to show on the field? It will be quite interesting to follow.

Eastern Michigan (2023 recruiting rank: 90, best since prior to 2010)

Chris Creighton capitalized on the momentum of his team’s 9-4 season last year to reel in the best recruiting class in well over a decade. In two of the previous three years, Creighton has brought in a class ranked in the 90s, decent by MAC standards. Before that, the best recent rank was 108 in 2012.

East Carolina (2023 recruiting rank: 66, best since prior to 2010)

Like Eastern Michigan, East Carolina was able to jump on the momentum from an 8-5 season to bring in its best recruiting class in a long time. This year’s class ranked 66. The last two classes were 96 and 85. The Pirates would be perennial contenders in the new weakened AAC if they recruit at this level.

Florida State (2023 recruiting rank: 16 – highest since 2018)

Mike Norvell could be on the verge of bringing Florida State back into national prominence after scoring the program’s highest-rated recruiting class since 2018. It continued a three-year trend of improvement as well.

Houston (Last two recruiting ranks: 51, 48. Prior five-year avg: 75.8)

Houston has put together its best back-to-back recruiting classes on record in preparation for its move to the Big 12. The Cougars were 12-2 in 2021 and seem to have parlayed that on-field success to the recruiting game.

Illinois (Last four recruiting ranks: 87, 71, 65, 54)

Third-year coach Bret Bielema brought in Illinois’ best recruiting class since 2019 this spring and continued a four-year trend of continuous improvement. Off their first bowl game in four years, this program is moving in the right direction.

Kansas State (2023 recruiting rank: 39. Prior 13-year best: 49)

Chris Klieman’s K-State team won double-digit games for the first time since 2012 this past year. He used that success to step up the recruiting efforts, enhancing the chances of continued success.

Louisville (2023 recruiting rank: 27, best since 2011)

You have to love the hiring of Jeff Brohm at Louisville, as the former star quarterback returns to his alma mater. The initial results are in, and they are fantastic, the best recruiting class in over a decade.

Ole Miss (Last three recruiting rank avg: 17.0. Prior four-year avg: 29.8)

Lane Kiffin has taken Ole Miss recruiting efforts to the next level, and the Rebels are now competing in that area with the likes of Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee. The results have shown on the field the last two years and should continue in ’23.

Oregon (Last six recruiting rank avg: 10.5. Prior five-year avg: 20.4)

Despite four coaching changes since 2017, recruiting has taken off for Oregon once again after a downturn in the years prior. The Ducks have been at a top-10 level in terms of adding players in three of the last six years. Are they poised to get back into the national title consideration in the immediate future?

Oregon State (Last three recruiting ranks: 108, 71. 53)

Oregon State’s 2021 class reached new depths for program standards, but the efforts for HC Jonathan Smith picked up over the last two seasons. Off last year’s 10-3 campaign, Smith brought in a class ranked 53^rd in the country, the Beavers’ best since 2019.

Rice (Last four recruiting ranks avg: 97.0. Prior five-year avg: 112.6)

During its recent heyday of football success (2012-14), Rice was playing with players obtained in recruiting classes ranked in the low 90s typically. Three of the last four classes were at such a level, and the Owls could be ready to see those efforts bear fruit on the field.

South Alabama (Last two years recruiting rank: 95, 83. Prior five-year avg: 117.4)

There is a lot of positive momentum brewing for Head Coach Kane Wommack at South Alabama as his team comes off a strong 10-3 campaign. He parlayed that into an 83rd-ranked recruiting class, its second straight respected group, and the highest for the program on record.

SMU (Last three recruiting ranks: 51, 50, 42. Prior 11-year avg: 75.2)

With three powerful recruiting classes in tow and most of the other formidable AAC powers having left for the Big 12, it sure looks like SMU could be the team to beat in the conference for the immediate future.

South Carolina (Last two recruiting ranks: 24, 17. 2021 rank: 79th)

It’s easily explainable when a new incoming coach strikes out on his first recruiting trail, and that is exactly what happened to Shane Beamer two years ago at South Carolina. He has redeemed himself since, scoring the program’s best-respected class since 2012 this spring. Off back-to-back winning seasons, the Gamecocks are a team on the rise.

Texas A&M (Last five recruiting ranks: 4, 6, 8, 1, 10. Prior nine-year avg: 15.4)

Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has brought Texas A&M to the elite of the recruiting rankings, with the program scoring five straight Top 10s. The seat is getting warmer as the talent in College Station is good enough to compete with Alabama and Georgia. At least on paper.

TX-San Antonio (Last three recruiting ranks: 74, 73, 72. Prior 10-year avg: 74.2)

After three straight well-respected recruiting classes, it’s safe to say that UTSA has reached a new echelon in its recruiting standards, so be prepared to see this program do fairly well in its transition to the AAC.

UCF (Last three recruiting average: 43.7. Prior 10-year avg: 68.1)

Head Coach Gus Malzahn has taken UCF recruiting to another level in his three years, so much so that the Golden Knights are projected ninth of 14 teams in the Big 12 for 2023. They are even ranked higher than three standing Big 12 foes.

Utah (2023 recruiting rank: 23^rd, best on record)

Head Coach Kyle Whittingham scored his best class at Utah in his tenure this spring, and with the program having been given ranks of 35^th or better in four straight years now, it sure looks as if the Utes will continue building on back-to-back double-digit win seasons.

23 teams whose recruiting rankings are trending in a NEGATIVE direction

Auburn (Last six years recruiting rank avg 14.7. Prior eight-year avg: 8.0)

This might not seem like a big transformation, dropping by an average of 6.7 over the time period, but in the SEC West it is. This is a big reason why Auburn is having trouble competing with the likes of Alabama and LSU lately. The Tigers were a consistent Top 10 recruiting team in the early part of last decade. They’ve been in double-digits in five of the last six years.

Bowling Green (Last three years recruiting rank avg 113.0. Prior four-year avg: 96.0)

The 2023 season will be Scott Loeffler’s fifth at Bowling Green, and he will no longer have veteran QB Matt McDonald as his stabilizing force. Recent recruiting classes suggest this year could be a struggle for the Falcons.

Charlotte (Last four years recruiting ranks: 88, 107, 112, 126)

It’s not a real surprise when the first recruiting class for a new coach at a program doesn’t measure up to recent years. However, Charlotte’s Biff Poggi brought in the school’s worst-rated class since 2019, extending a downward trend that could prove a challenging factor as the 49ers jump up to the AAC in ’23.

Clemson (Last two years recruiting rank avg: 14.5. Prior four-year avg: 6.3)

Could the magic be wearing off at Clemson for Head Coach Dabo Swinney? The last two recruiting classes rank as the worst consecutive seasons since 2013 and 2014. It’s not as big of a problem in the ACC as it would be in the SEC, but is this program no longer a perennial national title contender?

Connecticut (Last five years recruiting rank best: 110. Prior eight-year avg: 89.7)

There was talk this offseason that the Big 12 was considering adding Connecticut as an all-sports member. Surely, they were only focused on basketball. The Huskies' recent football recruiting efforts are not only trending horribly, they are also nowhere near Big 12 caliber.

Duke (Last two recruiting ranks: 68, 64, both worse than any year since 2013)

Mike Elko’s first two classes are the program’s worst-rated since 2013. However, he guided his team to an unexpected 9-4 record in 2022. It doesn’t look favorable for that success to continue, however.

LA Lafayette (Last two recruiting ranks: 120, 91. Prior three-year avg: 74.3)

Transitioning from a huge four-year run under Billy Napier was expected to be tough. Unfortunately, Head Coach Micheal Desourmeaux has lowered the recruiting standards in his first two classes. The results showed on the field last year. It will probably continue.

LA Monroe (Last two recruiting ranks: 128, 129, worst classes on record)

ULM doesn’t figure to get out of the rut it’s been in anytime soon as the two most recent recruiting classes rank in the bottom 6 of the country and are nowhere near the level needed to compete in the Sun Belt.

Marshall (Last four years recruiting rank avg: 101.75. Prior 10-year avg: 69.4)

  
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