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The first full Saturday of the college football season is here, loaded with intense non-conference action.
My college football predictions and best bets scoured all of Saturday's 67 games involving FBS teams at our best college football betting sites, and one that stood out first was in the earliest kickoff slot at noon ET in the Penn State-West Virginia tilt. Given James Franklin's teams' successes early in the season, it's no surprise that the college football playoff odds consider the Nittany Lions early season contenders to reach the postseason.
Before mixing in a couple of player prop wagers, my other ATS pick involves Georgia Tech, the darling of the college football season thus far, after its Week 0 upset of Florida State.
I went 2-0 with my two game picks from last week, easily cashing Georgia Tech as a 10.5-point underdog (it beat Florida State 24- 21) and Delaware State as 40.5-point 'dogs (it covered easily in a 35-14 loss to Hawaii).
College football best bets for Saturday: Week 1
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Jalen Milroe 3+ passing touchdowns (+180 via bet365) vs. Western Kentucky ???
- Donovan Edwards first half anytime touchdown scorer (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Fresno State ????
- Penn State -8 (-110 via Caesars) vs. West Virginia ????
- Georgia State +21.5 (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Georgia Tech ????
Week 1 college football schedule and odds for Saturday
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Clemson (+13.5) vs. Georgia (-13.5), noon ET
- Penn State (-8) vs. West Virgi nia (+8), noon ET
- Miami (-2.5) vs. Florida (+2.5), 3:30 p.m. ET
- Notre Dame (+3) vs. Texas A&M (-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
- Fresno State (+21) vs. Michigan (-21), 7:30 p.m. ET
College football player props for Saturday: Week 1
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
Kalen DeBoer is in his first game as Alabama's head coach, replacing the legendary Nick Saban. All eyes will be tuning in to see how the juggernaut that Saban built will look under DeBoer's tutelage. I expect him to feature his most talented offensive player – quarterback Milroe – early and often.
Milroe completed 52% of his passes 20-plus yards downfield last season, and his 14 passing touchdowns on those throws were tied for third in FBS. In addition, his 34 completions of 20 or more air yards were the fourth-highest among FBS quarterbacks.
This is a three-star play, as Alabama has a team total O/U of 24.5 first-half points, which suggests Milroe can reach this milestone after just 30 minutes of play. The best odds for his standard O/U of 1.5 passing touchdowns is DraftKings' -190 odds to go over 1.5, so the better value is at bet365 and its +180 odds.
Milroe has a great chance to throw three or more touchdowns, as he did so in four games last season and had two touchdown passes in five other games under the more run-heavy Saban.
A $10 winning wager would pay out $28.
Best odds: +180 via bet365 | Implied probability: 35.71%
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Former Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh rode Blake Corum and a power running game to a national championship last season. After fellow backfield mate Edwards contributed two rushing touchdowns in the national championship game against Washington, he is ready to take on a larger role and be the alpha male for a run-heavy Michigan team.
DraftKings' +150 odds trump the value of bet365's +125 odds for the same market, as a winning $10 wager would profit bettors $2.50 more ($15 instead of $12.50). bet365 offers enticing +300 odds for Edwards to score in the first quarter, but I will gladly take the added 15 minutes of the second quarter for him to find the endzone for insurance.
Considering Edwards' implied probability to score a touchdown is as high as 75.61% via FanDuel's -310 anytime touchdown scorer odds, I am running to the betting window to put down a wager on the dynamic back to score in the f irst 30 minutes.
Best odds: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40.00%
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College football game picks for Saturday: Week 1
Penn State held West Virginia to just 3.7 yards per carry and gained 170 more yards than the Mountaineers in last year's win in Happy Valley. West Virginia's inability to move the ball in that matchup despite having two starters on the offensive line taken in the NFL draft is concerning for its offensive outlook in this year's matchup.
Penn State is introducing two new coordinators. But if any head coach can get his team to gel early, it is James Franklin. Franklin's teams have failed to cover in just 33% of August and September games (Franklin's 32-17-2 ATS record in August and September over the last 20 years makes him the most profitable FBS coach in that span).
This line has come down from Nittany Lions -10 earlier in the summer, but I am not overly concerned about the public's affinity with the underdogs. I believe they are simply backing West Virginia in droves based on what the Morgantown atmosphere will be like.
A winning $10 wager pays out $19.09.
I'm also backing Drew Allar to produce a quality afternoon in my Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Georgia State is in a great situational spot against a Georgia Tech team that played overseas in Dublin last week. Not only is the travel likely to affect the Yellow Jackets, but can they re-focus and avoid a letdown after snapping their 15-game winless streak against AP top-10 opponents?
The Panthers finished in the top 60 of Offensive SP+ last season. They will not be intimidated playing at Georgia Tech, considering they have endured true road games in SEC environments like Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee, and LSU. In addition, Georgia State has a bit of an inside coaching edge, as new defensive coordinator Kevin Sherrer was the Yellow Jackets' defensive coordinator at the end of last season.
Several bettors will scoff at the -120 odds to back the underdog at BetMGM, but that is a difference of 76 cents on a winning $10 wager than standard -110 odds ($18.33 vs. $19.09). But getting three touchdowns and the hook is worth the extra juice, especially since some of our other best sports betting apps are still at +20.5.
Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%
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College football betting odds pages
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