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The Week 4 college football slate offers a fantastic blend of non-conference action and league play, especially among the teams new to their respective Power Four conferences.
In years past, matchups between USC and Michigan would have been saved for the Rose Bowl, while a Tennessee vs. Oklahoma matchup would have been appointment television on New Year's Day.
Now, those are late-September league games that will have a huge impact on the College Football Playoff odds landscape.
However, our college football predictions and best bets for Week 4 focus on a different ranked vs. ranked matchup – the one that takes us into the weekend with a Friday night kickoff.
Elsewhere, many top-25 teams would be at a clear disadvantage if their starting quarterback went out with an injury. That's not the case, though, for Texas, who vaulted to the No. 1 spot in the AP poll with Arch Manning already attracting some Heisman Trophy odds buzz in place of the injured Quinn Ewers.
We took a deeper dive into his futures bets with our Arch Manning Heisman Trophy odds, which accompanies all of our college football Week 4 predictions.
Best college football bets for Week 4
College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Luke Altmyer Over 0.5 interceptions (-155 via bet365) vs. Nebraska ????
- Jaylin Noel to score the first touchdown (+750 via bet365) vs. Arkansas State ???
- Georgia Tech +11 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Louisville ????
- Michigan State-Boston College Under 45.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ????
Week 4 college football odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- Illinois (+7.5) vs. Nebraska (-7.5), Friday at 8 p.m. ET
- NC State (+19.5) vs. Clemson (-19.5), Saturday at noon ET
- USC (-6) vs. Michigan (+6), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Georgia Tech (+10.5) vs. Louisville (-10.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Utah (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma State (-2.5), Saturday at 4 p.m. ET
- Tennessee (-7) vs. Oklahoma (+7), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
College football player props for Week 4
College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Last year, Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer had the dubious distinction of throwing the most interceptions (seven) by any Big Ten quarterback through the first three games of a season since 2020. To put that in perspective, three other quarterbacks threw six interceptions in that span, and one is Michigan quarterback Davis Warren, who was just benched this week.
Altmyer has taken much better care of the football with six touchdowns to zero interceptions thus far, but he has never gone four consecutive games without an interception in his career.
Considering he was picked off at least once in six of nine games last season and is facing a Cornhuskers team that is tied for 22nd in turnover margin, I expect Altmyer to throw at least one interception on Friday night.
A $10 winning wager pays out $16.45.
Best odds: -155 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60.78%
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Two seasons ago, Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel finished with 39 receptions, the third-most by a freshman in Cyclones history. Noel is clearly quarterback Rocco Becht's favorite target thus far, as his 268 receiving yards are 125 more than the next-best total on the team.
Noel is tied for the team lead in receptions (13) and has been consistent, with at least five catches, 133-plus yards, and one touchdown in each of the first two games.
I am swinging for the fences with him to be the game's first touchdown scorer given his big-play ability with receptions of 54 and 75 yards through the first two games.
Noel's two touchdowns have each been Iowa State's second scores thus far, but with league play starting next week, I expect there to be more urgency among the Iowa State coaching staff to get the offense started and race out to a big lead early so that the Cyclones can rest starts like Noel in the second half.
A $10 winning wager would net $75 in profit.
Best odds: +750 via bet365 | Implied probability: 11.76%
College football game predictions for Week 4
There are few coaches in the country better in an underdog role than Georgia Tech's Brent Key.
The Yellow Jackets improved to 13-3 ATS as underdogs since Key took over as head coach, and the team has pulled several surprising road upsets under his tutelage, winning all three road games outright against ranked ACC opponents since 2022.
Overall, Georgia Tech is over .500 (10-9 SU) in its last 19 games as an underdog, covering 14 times in that span, and it's 7-1 ATS in its previous eight games overall against ranked opponents.
The Yellow Jackets lost their season opener 39-34 to Louisville last year, but that was also a Cardinals team that was ranked as high as 10th after starting 10-1, and Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King dazzled with 366 all-purpose yards, while their receivers averaged 16.5 yards per reception in that contest.
DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a spread of +11 as all others are at +10.5. Thus, I am happy to take advantage of the extra half-point of value at the standard -110 odds, as a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos has come a long way as a passer from last season. One year after completing 57% of his passes and posting just one more touchdown than interception (15 to 14), the Eagles signal-caller now ranks in the top 10 nationally in QBR and yards per attempt.
However, given the schedule that had them play two games against ranked teams at the time, passing was much more of a necessity against those teams that stacked the box.
In this matchup, I expect head coach Bill O'Brien to employ a more conservative running and ball-control style to mask a defense that ranks 93rd or worse in Havoc and Passing Success Rate thus far.
Michigan State was averaging just 21.5 points per game before dropping 40 on an inferior Prairie View squad, but this is still a Spartans team that was held to 16 or fewer points in three of five road conference games last year.
The extra -115 juice at BetMGM is worth it considering all other best sports betting apps besides FanDuel have the total a half-point lower at 45. A winning $10 wager would net $8.70 in profit.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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