It's time for conference play. Week 4 is here, and college football this weekend will mostly turn away from non-conference matchups.
That's not the case everywhere, though, as some of my favorite college football betting odds from this weekend include some of those last remaining non-conference holdouts.'
Today – as I do every Wednesday throughout the college football regular season – I've put together a handful of my favorite NCAAF bets for you to consider this weekend.'
College Football Best Bets: Week 4 Predictions
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.'
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.'
Georgia Southern is the far better team here and undervalued after a misleading loss at Wisconsin, so I am predicting that Southern will cover the 6.5-point spread at Ball State.
If you read last week's Week 3 predictions, you already know Georgia Southern +19.5 was one of my favorite bets of the week.'
That ticket went down in flames after Georgia Southern was an apoplectic -6 on turnovers for the game – and that's without even counting a seventh turnover on downs and a missed field goal. Final score: 35-14. Eight empty drives – most of them ending in positive territory – and all we needed was a lousy two points for the cover. Yuck.
The silver lining here is that the market is not correctly accounting for how well Southern played in the game, or how good it’s generally been so far this year. This is a team that will be in the mix for the vaunted Sun Belt East. The Eagles are absolutely a touchdown better than Ball State, even on the road.'
Best Bet: Georgia Southern -6.5
Alabama is grossly overvalued here and playing a legitimately good team, so I am predicting a cover and outright win for Ole Miss.'
I know this is Alabama and Nick Saban we’re talking about, and after all these years, the Tuscaloosa machine has earned a certain amount of institutional trust. But that's kind of my whole problem with this line: it seems like it’s all about the past.'
There is nothing on tape that Alabama has done through three weeks of this season that says they deserve to be a full touchdown favorite over this Ole Miss team.
Lane Kiffin's offense with the Rebs is legitimately good, and Alabama doesn't have a P5-caliber quarterback. Both sides of the ball are down from previous years.'
The Rebels should completely outclass this team on offense, which will, inevitably, wear down Alabama's blue-chip defense. I predicted Texas would win in Tuscaloosa, and I see the same thing here for Ole Miss.'