College football power ranking projections for 2023
Over the past month or so, I’ve been collecting the key information I need to put together my college football power ratings for the 2023 season. This annually involves analyzing the returning players/coaches for the teams, making adjustments based upon last year’s finish and the current perception of teams, and then ensuring I have not assumed anything out of the window for normalcy for each team’s recent history or conference strength. That last point was a particular challenge this year, with massive realignment affecting the various conferences across the country for the upcoming season.
As I went through all of the teams, the status of the all-important quarterback position really stood out to me. For one, three of the top teams in the country, perhaps ranked #1-#3 depending on the poll you are browsing, are all starting over at quarterback after tremendous runs with the predecessor. Georgia moves on from Stetson Bennett, Ohio State looks to replace CJ Stroud, and Alabama searches for an answer for Bryce Young’s departure. All three of those players have moved on to the NFL, and yet, experts see enough talent remaining on these teams to expect continued elite play. Second, there is a ton of premier QB talent back across the country for expected contending teams this season. The Pac-12 is particularly loaded, with the likes of Caleb Williams (USC), Michael Penix (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), and Cam Rising (Utah) back for their respective clubs. And thirdly, the number of transfer quarterbacks moving on to new teams after extensive experience at prior schoo ls is unprecedented. If you love studying QB play in college football and appreciate familiar names when prepping a team at its most important position, this could be the season for you.
If you think the coaching carousel was significant this season, the 24 changes to programs this season is a fairly typical number. However, the reasons for changes, including the one just this week at Northwestern, can cause some havoc for programs. I detailed all of the coaching changes in an article about a month ago, and it will run again in the VSiN College Football Betting Guide.
Before the 2021 season, I called for an “upset” to the College Football Playoff proceedings, as I figured some of the recent fringe playoff teams that were bringing back more super seniors that did not opt for the NFL draft could make a run at the playoffs. This came to fruition when Michigan and Cincinnati formed half of the final four. Sure, both teams lost as big underdogs in their playoff chances, but just making it there was an achievement, particularly for the Bearcats, then out of the American Conference. Last fall, I called for a return to normalcy, with Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State playing as heavy favorites to make the CFP. Two of those did, with the Tide being the omission. For 2023, those three teams, along with Michigan, seem to be the ones to beat. As you study the ratings chart below, you’ll see this perception is reflected in the numbers.