The top-10 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings escaped Week 12 without a single loss, as Washington beat No. 11 Oregon State to cement its spot in the Pac-12 Championship.
While upsets were not a part of the weekend, the news could not be bigger for one of the undefeated teams challenging for a national title. Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis left the North Alabama game with a horrific leg injury that will end his season.
The Seminoles recovered from a 13-0 deficit to the Lions thanks to an experienced backup quarterback in Tate Rodemaker.
Questions will continue to surround Florida State without its star quarterback in the two games leading to the final playoff rankings. The Seminole s are lined at less than a touchdown against Florida this week, just one short week before a similar line will be available against Louisville.
The committee has no basis to remove the Seminoles from the top four, but any sloppiness in the next eight quarters will certainly give the committee reasons to bump Florida State.
Here's the updated list of national title contenders, along with their chance of sweeping their remaining schedule that includes a conference championship game:
To determine where value is in the national championship market, we must follow the “Four Commandments of the College Football Playoff.”
These rules serve as a roadmap to the national semifinal, detecting value in futures before the committee releases the rankings.
The first set of rankings were released nine seasons ago, giving consumers 36 different data points for entry into the playoff.
The goal of this column is to find the best betting value befo re each Tuesday checkpoint when the committee updates its rankings.
Here's a look at the Four Commandments to apply when handicapping the ever-changing selection committee.
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CFP Commandment No. 1
Note: We have never had five undefeated Power 5 champions, and that will continue with the cannibalization of the Big 12.
Florida State, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia are the only Power 5 teams that remain undefeated.
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CFP Commandment No. 2
Note: Ohio State was left out of the 2018 College Football Playoff as a one-loss Big Ten champion.
Alabama was selected as an at-large after taking its first loss in the SEC Championship game, while the Buckeyes couldn't recover from a 49-20 defeat at the hands of a 6-6 Purdue team.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas currently meet this criteria. None of these teams have suffered an embarrassing loss, but Louisville's loss to Pittsburgh is a knockout.
Alabama, Oregon and Texas all hold losses to teams with a top-15 ranking.
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CFP Commandment No. 3
Note: This precedent was set when Ohio State missed the CFP in 2017 as the Big Ten champion with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa.
No current two-loss teams have the resume to make the playoff.
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CFP Commandment No. 4
Note: UCF finished 2018 und efeated but was passed by two-loss Michigan and Georgia. Cincinnati continued to fall in the 2020 rankings, as three-loss Florida and two-loss Oklahoma passed the Bearcats.
In 2021, Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff because of a head-to-head victory over No. 5 Notre Dame, while No. 6 Ohio State was not selected as a two-loss team after head-to-head losses against No. 2 Michigan and No. 14 Oregon.
Tulane will continue to rank in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings, but its loss to Ole Miss shuts the door on a playoff opportunity.
Bracket 1: SEC Championship
Remaining Schedule:
- Georgia: at Georgia Tech +23
- Alabama: at Auburn +14
- SEC Championship: Alabama +4 vs. Geo rgia
The lookahead line for the SEC Championship game has floated from Alabama +3 to +5.5. The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs enter Week 13 as double-digit favorites over Auburn and Georgia Tech, respectively.
The odds for both teams must consider what is essentially a quarterfinal game in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, along with the worst-case path in the playoff. From a power ratings perspective, the SEC champ would have the toughest schedule, going through Michigan and Oregon.
Assuming Alabama would be a near pick'em against Oregon and Michigan, the true odds for the Tide to sweep the next four games are +800.' Meanwhile, Georgia's numbers to run through Alabama, Michigan and Oregon project at +500.
Neither SEC team has the number in the futures market for action, as our Week 10 play on Alabama at 9-1 will carry over to this section.
Bracket 2: Big Ten East
Remaining Schedule:
- Ohio State: at Michigan -4 · Iowa +21.5
- Michigan: Ohio State +4 · Iowa +22.5
Week 13 will provide college football consumers a true College Football Playoff quarterfinal with “The Game,” as Michigan opened as four-point favorites over the Buckeyes.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh will miss the remainder of the regular season because of the sign-stealing scandal, but the Wolverines still survived a full rally from Maryland in Week 12.
Michigan has similar numbers to win the national title as Georgia above – a projection of 5-1 with the path including Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon.
The number does not balloon for Ohio State thanks to a bump in power rating over the past couple of weeks.
The Buckeyes' toughest road to the national title goes throu gh Michigan, Georgia and Oregon. That path would leave Ohio State with true odds of +950 to win the national title using our Action Network parlay calculator.
At the current odds, the best bet will be a National Championship number immediately after a winner is determined in Week 13.
Bracket 3: Pac-12 Champion
Remaining Schedule:
- Washington: Washington State +17
- Oregon: Oregon State +14
- Pac-12 Championship: Oregon -5.5 vs. Washington