College Football Playoff: How Should Expansion Impact Your Bets?

In the ever-changing world of college football, adjustments are always being made in an effort to improve the billion-dollar industry.

Agree with it or not, College Football Playoff expansion is here – and there will likely be more expansion in the future. Going from four teams to 12 may not seem like a massive shakeup, but that means there's triple the teams that have a chance to bring home a title, even if the college football championship odds are full of the usual suspects.

It also means that the new format will provide an opportunity to programs that aren't consistently in the playoff conversation, with them playing meaningful football into November. While there's no Group of Five program atop the College Football Playoff odds, at least one is guaranteed a spot.

Expansion is going to have a massive impact on the sport, and it should be considered when placi ng college football futures bets at our best college football betting sites – and not just on champions or playoff qualifiers, as the Heisman Trophy odds are more wide open than ever thanks in part to expansion.

Does College Football Playoff expansion matter for futures bets?

To absolutely nobody's surprise, of course College Football Playoff expansion matters for futures. Not only will this put an end to Power Four conference champions being snubbed of a playoff bid – one year too late for Florida State – but it also gives non-conference champs a shot.

The new format guarantees the five highest-ranked conference champions a spot in the playoff. While it's not necessarily for certain that four of those champs will come from the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12, it's essentially a foregone conclusion that they will represent those automatic bids. That fifth bid will go to the highest-rated conference champ from the Group of Five.

However, the 13-member selection committee that's made many an enemy over the last decade will continue to be utilized. The committee will select at-large bids to fill out the final seven spots of the playoff, as well as seed the programs from No. 1 to 12. 

From there, the four highest-ranked conference champs will earn the top four seeds and a bye into the second round of the playoffs. The next four highest-seeded teams will then host a playoff game on their campus (or a location of their choice) against the four lower-seeded teams.

Then the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played at the New Year's Six bowl game locations prior to the championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Jan. 20.

So not only will this give you far more options when betting on teams to make the College Football Playoff, but finding teams that will either earn that first-round bye or host a game on their campus will be paramount for a successful national champion futures bet.

How CFP expansion impacts betting on a national champion

Of the three futures markets I'm focusing on, I think betting on a national champion will be the least impacted. Just look at the favorites to win it all this season: Ohio State, Georgia, Texas, and Oregon all have loaded defenses and All-American playmakers on offense. What could have more of an impact on this season specifically is conference realignment. 

Those four programs come from two conferences with the Ducks joining the Buckeyes in the Big Ten and the Longhorns moving to the SEC with the Bulldogs. That means only two of those teams can win their conference and earn a bye week. So the combination of playoff expansion with conference realignment will hand two of those teams an extra game, albeit on their own cam pus.

I subscribe to the concept of bodyblow theory, and having to play an extra do-or-die game – even if it's an “easy win” – can take a toll on your players. As someone who believes the national champ will be either Ohio State, Georgia, or Oregon, trusing they'll win their conference is key when considering who to bet on.

It's worth noting, too, that 11 of the 13 teams with the shortest odds to win the national title hail from either the SEC or Big Ten. The other two are Florida State (ACC) and Notre Dame (independent). The Fighting Irish which cannot earn a bye as an independent but probably have an easier path to qualifying for the playoffs.

Since the inception of the four-team playoff in 2014, the only non-SEC/Big Ten national champ has been Clemson (twice). And dating back to 2006, the SEC has won the championship 13 times, the ACC three times, and the Big Ten twice.

Go back slightly further to 2000 and you get Texas, Oklahoma, and USC accounting for four total titles for the Big 12 and Pac-12 – all three programs now belong to the SEC or Big Ten. Expansion or not, history says the title is more likely to go to an SEC or Big Ten team this year, and the winner of those conference will have a massive advantage with the bye week.

Even with a Big 12 and ACC team also earning a bye, can you really trust them to take a title? The favorite by the Big 12 Championship odds is new member Utah. In the ACC, Clemson has taken a step back under Dabo Swinney while Florida State lost a lot from last year's team.

As chalky as it sounds, backing the team you think will win the SEC or Big Ten is the way to go when considering playoff expansion, conference realignment, and recent history.

How CFP expansion impacts betting on playoff odds

As a result of College Football Playoff expansion, it's not overly lucrative to back one of the big bads in the sport. Ohio State and Georgia both have odds ranging between -550 and -750 to qualify for the playoffs. To put those numbers into perspective, -600 odds imply an 85.71% probability of a team qualifying with a $10 winning bet paying just a $1.67 profit.

That's why playoff expansion has a far larger impact on this market than the national championship market. You almost have to ignore the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC ahead of the season, and perhaps hold out for a better price if one of them trips up early in the year. If Texas loses its non-conference game to Michigan on Sept. 7, for example, maybe the Longhorns' odds will lengthen from around -200 to a more reasonable price.

Even a team like Penn State has odds as short as -145 to make the playoffs, which isn't a horrible price, but it's hard to be confident in a James Franklin squad that's been disappointing for years – especially when a $10 winning bet on the Nittany Lions would pay less than an $8 profit.

Because of playoff expansion and conference realignment, it feels like betting on Big Ten and SEC teams to make the playoff is either not worth it due to the odds being so short, or too risky due to the conferences being so loaded.

That's why I think targeting the ACC, Big 12, and Group of Five is the best way to handle the impact of CFP expansion when betting into this market.

Florida State, Clemson, and Miami lead the ACC Championship odds, and each is plus-money to make the playoff. So if you feel strongly about one winning the conference, then it's a smart move to back them to make the playoff. The same goes for the Big 12 with Utah, Kansas St ate, and Oklahoma State as the favorites to win the conference with plus-money odds to make the playoff.

The Group of Five is a little more tricky because if Boise State, Liberty, Appalachian State, and Memphis all win their conferences as expected, it'll come down to who the committee ranks highest. Still, it's better bang for your buck to back one or even all of them – the winner of Liberty vs. Appalachian State on Sept. 28 might be a lock to take the G5 bid.

Finally, we can't forget about Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish can't win a conference and earn a bye, but we all know the committee is going to put them in as long as they win nine games. It's why I think even with odds as short as -190, they're a smarter team to back in this market than a team like Penn State, Ole Miss, or LSU.

What does CFP expansion mean for Heisman odds?

To be fully transparent, we don't know if playoff expansion will have an impact on the Heisman or not. Clearly, being in the race to make the four-team playoff never hurt a Heisman campaign, but it didn't stop players from winning it, either.

During the four-team playoff era (2014-2023), three of the 10 winners didn't make the playoff – including each of the last two winners in LSU's Jayden Daniels and USC's Caleb Williams. It was far more important to be a QB putting up video game numbers than it was to be the star on the No. 1 seed in the CFP.

However, if you look at the final CFP rankings for the three players who didn't qualify for the playoff when they won, LSU, USC, and Louisville (Lamar Jackson) were ranked in the top 13 in the final rankings.

That means, at worst, they all would have b een the first team out in the expanded playoffs. So, while they wouldn't have had to be a lock to qualify, they would have had to be in the conversation.

In addition to this award heavily favoring quarterbacks at brand-name programs, the winner also probably needs to be on a top-15 team at the end of the season.

Would the committee have even passed on putting Daniels, Williams, and Jackson into the playoff if it were 12 teams? I'm not saying they aren't trying to get it right, but it would be better for the sport if superstar quarterbacks were playing in the playoff. Would they really have put Oklahoma in over LSU last season?

Regardless, CFP expansion places a premium on quarterbacks in the fight for a playoff spot. Which, I mean, duh. Still, looking at the Heisman odds, there's QBs from Tennessee, Miami, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Colorado among the top-15 favorites.

Do y ou really feel that any of those programs will be suiting up for a playoff game in late December? Just like when it comes to betting the national champion, taking a favorite is the smart way to go in this market.

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