Monday’s CFP national title game between Michigan and Washington figures to be one of the more intriguing matchups the playoff process has produced, a dynamic clash of styles. Michigan boasts one of, if not the best, defenses in the country. Washington has a passing attack unmatched on the national landscape. It is also an interesting matchup in that these teams will be conference mates next season, and there is already a rematch game slated for October 5th in Ann Arbor.
For now, it is a matchup of Big Ten and Pac-12, the first such clash since Ohio State upset Oregon 42-20 as a 7-point underdog nine years ago. It will also be the first title tilt since that 2015 matchup in which the SEC is not represented. All of this leads to what should be exciting and much-watched contest to wrap up the CFP four-team playoff era. If nothing else, we know it will be a better game than last year’s 65-7 drubbing of TCU by Georgia.
The odds for the game reflect the respect that oddsmakers have for both teams. Michigan, the CFP’s top-ranked team, is a 4.5-point favorite over #3 Washington after opening at -3.5 when the number was released on Monday night. The total is sitting right around 55.5 after opening at 54.5, according to DraftKings. Let’s take a quick look at some of the key trends I was able to uncover regarding the matchup, including some angles derived from recent national championship game contests. After that, I will share my take on the game from both a line and total perspective.
Recent Bowl Game Trends
Big Ten teams are on a run of 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS vs. Pac-12 teams in bowl games.
Steve’s thoughts: Including Northwestern’s 14-7 SU and ATS win versus Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl a couple of weeks ago, Big Ten teams have been a solid bet for backers in bowl games versus the Pac-12. Unfortunately, this will be the last time this trend applies, as the Pac-12 dissolves and four teams move on to the Big Ten.
Before the 2015 bowl season, Pac-12 teams playing as underdogs in bowl games was rare. Lately, and for good reason, the regularity has ramped up. That hasn’t been good news for the league, as Pac-12 teams are on a slide of 5-21 SU and 9-17 ATS as dogs.
Steve’s thoughts: The Pac-12 went 2-2 SU and ATS as a bowl underdog this past month, with Cal and Oregon State losing and USC and Washington pulling outright upsets. In most of the cases of the 26 games in this trend, the Pac-12 team was at a noteworthy defensive disadvantage, and opponents capitalized. For this particular matchup, Michigan allows just 10.2 PPG, nearly 14 PPG better than Washington (24.1).
Top-rated matchup trends from VSiN.com
MICHIGAN is on a 19-8 ATS surge when having won its last four games or more.
Steve’s thoughts: There is a certain mojo that comes with success at the elite programs. Other teams don’t handle it as well. Being galvanized and playing for the program and one another is one of the best traits a championship-level team possesses. Michigan seems to have that feel about it this year. After being ousted from each of the last two CFP playoffs and throwing in the adversity this team has faced off the field in 2023, it sure looks like the Wolverines could be a team of destiny.
WASHINGTON is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG.
Steve’s thoughts: This is also one of the foremost trends on the list for the angles involving Washington. The Huskies seem to get up for games against the best foes. They are also on a 5-0 ATS run as an underdog, speaking to the thought that they might be playing with a chip on their shoulder. A lot of the reason that head coach Kalen DeBoer’s team has been able to win 21 straight games is their willingness to go toe-to-toe with even the best of teams.
MICHIGAN is 14-1 Over the total in the last 15 games vs. teams riding winning streaks of at least six games or more
WASHINGTON is 8-2 Under in its last 10 games facing teams that have won their last six games or more
Steve’s thoughts: In the earlier two team trends, I spoke of the significant winning streaks that both of these teams are on. Well, unfortunately, these trends obviously conflict. Furthermore, if you visit the matchup page on VSiN.com and analyze all of the top totals trends for both of these programs, you will quickly see that Michigan’s list leans mostly to the Over in this matchup while Washington sides definitively Under on the total. Last year’s game showed mostly Over angles and eventually went that way.
Top Trends from Recent National Championship Games
These are some of the top trends from recent national championship games.