Four teams will compete for two berths in the 2024 College Football Championship, and we're rounding up our college football playoff expert picks for New Year's Day based on the best NCAAF odds.
New Year's Day brings us the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
To kick off the action, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan Wolverines square off in the Rose Bowl at 5 p.m. ET. The winner of that contest will be sure to keep an eye on the evening's affair.
In the nightcap, it's the Sugar Bowl at 8:45 p.m. ET. The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies will do battle in that contest, with their opponent in the CFP National Championship Game already decided.
Both games feature razor-close spreads, but our experts have scoured the betting markets to bring you the best plays from both contests.
As part of our New Year's Six predictions and our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our best college football playoff expert picks for New Year's Day (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College Football Playoff schedule
(Odds via Caesars)
- Alabama vs. Michigan (-1.5) – Rose Bowl, 5 p.m. ET
- Texas (-4) vs. Washington – Sugar Bowl, 8:45 p.m. ET
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College Football Playoff expert picks
| Game | Mike Spector | Phil Wood | Brenden Schaeffer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama vs. Michigan spread | Alabama +1.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ??? | Michigan -1.5 (-110 via bet365) ??? | Alabama +2 (-110 via bet365) ???? |
| Alabama vs. Michigan total | Under 45 (-110 via bet365) ???? | Under 45 (-110 via bet365) ???? | Over 44.5 (-112 via FanDuel) ??? |
| Alabama vs. Michigan player prop | J.J. McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ???? | JJ McCarthy Under 189.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ???? | Jalen Milroe Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ??? |
| Texas vs. Washington spread | Texas -4 (-110 via BetMGM) ??? | Texas -4 (-110 via BetMGM) ???? | Washington +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ???? |
| Texas vs. Washington total | Under 64 (-110 via BetRivers) ??? | Over 62.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ??? | Over 62.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ???? |
| Texas vs. Washington player prop | Adonai Mitchell Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???? | Michael Penix Jr. Over 309.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???? | Quinn Ewers Over 287.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ???? |
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College Football Playoff top picks
Texas' Adonai Mitchell is second on the team in receptions and receiving yards. However, recent injuries to two of the Longhorns' most explosive skill players suggest that Mitchell should go off in the semifinals.
Texas has been without leading rusher Jonathan Brooks for the last three games after he tore his ACL in a win in November, and outside of a 100-yard rushing game against Iowa State, backup running back CJ Baxter has just 88 yards on 22 carries in two other starts.
Thus, we expect head coach Steve Sarkisian to attack his former team and its 121st-ranked pass defense a lot through the air, but Mitchell could be the primary focus of the passing game, as leading receiver Xavier Worthy said his ankle is not 100% healthy.
Mitchell had 61-plus yards receiving in three of the team's previous five games. In one of the two games when he fell short of that mark, quarterback Quinn Ewers attempted just 26 passes, his lowest number of attempts in the last seven games, as the team blew out Texas Tech 57-7.
We expect a much closer game against Washington, and the Huskies allowed seven receivers to go for 61 or more yards receiving in the five games against AP-ranked opponents this year. However, just two of those opponents (Oregon and USC) had more prolific passing attacks than Texas this season.
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the O/U of 60.5, but FanDuel charges the lowest price, as the odds to back the Over are as high as -117 at Caesars.