College Football Conference Championships: Early Lines, Odds & Predictions (2022)

Here’s an early look at College Football Week 12 spreads and totals, along with my projections. We’ll run through significant injuries affecting spreads and hit on games that you might want to consider betting on early in the week due to expected line movement.

2022: 76-61-3 ATS (55.5%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

UTSA (-8.5) vs. North Texas | San Antonio, TX (UTSA homefield)

UTSA had its spot sealed up in this game heading into last weekend. The Roadrunners were sleepy early on against UTEP in a game that meant little, falling behind 24-0. But UTSA ended the game on a 34-7 run to steal the non-cover win as -17.5 favorites.

Last year, in the exact same situational spot in Week 13, ironically against North Texas, UTSA went vanilla and lost 45-23 as 10.5-point favorites. But a week later, the strategy proved sound when UTSA beat WKU in the CUSA title game 49-41 to cover the number.

UTSA RB Trelon Smith status is iffy for this game after he missed Saturday's win over UTEP with an unspecified lower-body injury. Smith spent the game in a walking boot. RB Kevorian Barnes was the clear lead back spelled by Brenden Brady.

North Texas won its way in by staving-off Rice 21-17 over the weekend. Running back depth was one of North Texas' biggest strengths this season, but it has taken a big shot this month. Lead-back Oscar Adaway III hasn't played in November with an undisclosed injury, and Ayo Adeyi hasn't played since the first game of the month with a leg issue.

Earlier meeting: On Oct. 22, UTSA beat North Texas 31-27 in this same venue, the Alamodome. North Texas led 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter before the teams combined to explode for 35 points in the final frame. The last seven of which came with 15 seconds remaining, UTSA QB Frank Harris’ game-winning 10-yard TD pass to WR De’Corian Clark (who has since suffered a season-ending injury). UTSA out-gained UNT 495-347.

USC (-3) vs. Utah | Las Vegas, NV

USC has had WRs Jordan Addison and Mario Williams and LB Eric Gentry return to full health in recent weeks and come in off two enormous wins over UCLA and Notre Dame. Doubted earlier this season, the USC bandwagon is now becoming quite full.

USC QB Caleb Williams, who entered last week as a Heisman underdog, is now the heavy favorite after going 18-for-22 for 232 yards and one TD in a 38-27 win on Saturday night over Notre Dame. He added three touchdowns and 35 rushing yards on the ground. Williams also was an intended end-zone target on a trick play (he was flagged for OPI) and pooch-punted twice.
Utah will be without lead back RB Tavion Thomas, who announced last Friday that he will forgo his remaining eligibility to enter the 2023 NFL Draft. Thomas injured his toe against Oregon and elected to shut it down for the season and focus on draft preparation.

If there's a silver lining for Utah, it's that the Utes had already seemingly begun preparing for this contingency by going to more of a committee approach earlier this season. That committee will now be comprised of RBs Jaylon Glover, Ja’Quinden Jackson, and Micah Bernard.

Those three will step into the spotlight against a USC defense that struggles against the run. And Utah QB Cam Rising and TE Dalton Kincaid – discussed below – will once again be counted on to take advantage of a USC defense that has all kinds of issues corralling tight ends. In the last two weeks, USC gave up a combined 12 catches for 142 yards and five TD to Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer and UCLA TE Michael Ezeike.

Earlier meeting: Utah pinned USC with its only loss of the season by rallying for a 43-42 win on Oct. 15. Were it not for that loss, the Trojans' CFP spot would probably already be assured. It was an emotional game in Salt Lake City. The Utes dedicated it to former players Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe, who died within a year of each other, and played with Jordan and Lowe's images on their helmets. Both offenses – and both quarterbacks in particular – put on a show. USC QB Caleb Williams threw for 381 yards and five TD. Utah QB Cam Rising had 475 yards of total offense and five total TD, while Utah TE Dalton Kincaid went berserk for a 16-234-1 line. Utah slightly outgained USC 562-556. The Utes were beneficiaries of a questionable late roughing the passer call that extended Utah's game-winning drive, as well as an in-game injury to star USC WR Jordan Addison that ended Addison's night early.

Buffalo (-12.5) vs. Akron (Friday) | Buffalo, NY

This is a rescheduled regular season game from earlier this month, a game pushed off because of snow conditions in Buffalo. The MAC announced it last week, and it's good that they did: Because Buffalo now badly needs to win this game.

The Bulls had a chance to achieve bowl eligibility last week but coughed up a 30-27 decision to Kent State in OT to fall to 5-6. That makes this a straightforward proposition for Buffalo: Beat Akron, and you're going bowling. Lose, and pack up your lockers.

Beating Akron might not be as easy a task as it appeared on the surface last week. Akron, which had lost nine straight since beating an FCS team in its opener, destroyed NIU 44-12. Akron QB2 Jeff Undercuffler threw for 312 yards and three TD in place of the injured QB DJ Irons. Irons' status for this game is unclear.

Buffalo was without leading rusher RB Ron Cook Jr. and WR3 Jamari Gassett in the loss to Kent State. Neither's injury has been disclosed, and it's currently unclear whether either will return this weekend.

Without Cook, the Bulls recently have been leaning on running-QB Matt Myers to handle a larger percentage of the rushing load. That was particularly the case against Kent State when Myers ran 21 times for 109 yards and three TD. Myers should prep for similar usage if Cook is out again. Akron's leaky run defense should be just as generous as Kent's was.

Even with last week's ATS and SU loss, Buffalo is 41-26-2 ATS at home in MAC play since 2005. If Buffalo beats Akron, the Bulls would become the 80th bowl-eligible team for 82 spots. There's plenty of intrigue about where the final 2-3 bowl spots will go, depending on the outcome of this game.

By rule, any remaining bowl spots go to 5-7 teams with the top graduation rate. Rice, UNLV, and Auburn top the list. But the Action Network's Brett McMurphy reported Monday that UNLV may decline the invite after firing HC Marcus Arroyo. That would seemingly open the door for Auburn regardless of Buffalo's outcome.

But there's one other scenario to keep an eye on. There are three teams interested in applying for waivers to hop the 5-7 teams for placement priority into the final bowl slots: 5-6 New Mexico State, 6-6 Appalachian State, and 5-6 Army. NMSU had a game against San Jose State canceled due to a death on SJSU's roster.

Appy State has two wins against FCS teams, and only one counts towards bowl eligibility. The same can be said about Army, though Army needs to beat Navy a week from Saturday to even reach four wins against FBS opponents, complicating their argument significantly. Stay tuned.

Toledo (-2.5) vs. Ohio | Detroit, MI

Both teams have been hit by quarterback injuries, setting up a potential backup-against-backup situation. We're definitely getting that on the Ohio side, with QB Kurtis Rourke ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Rourke is PFF's highest-graded quarterback by a margin of 93.1 (next-highest: 91.6).

Last week, with Rourke down, Ohio QB2 CJ Harris went 10-for-21 for 196 yards and a TD but provided value on the ground with 65 run yards and three TD in a 38-14 win over Bowling Green. Harris is a seismic downgrade from Rourke as a thrower and somewhat of a downgrade as a runner.

Toledo QB Dequan Finn would seem to be very iffy to play this weekend. Finn started last week against WMU following a two-week absence with a foot injury. But Finn very clearly wasn't healthy and was pulled after going 5-for-11 for 35 yards and two INT. Finn finished the game on the sidelines in street clothes and a walking boot.

Toledo QB2 Tucker Gleason was horrific in relief of Finn, going 13-for-38 for 200 yards, one TD, and one INT as Toledo was upset by WMU 20-14. Toledo was 1-1 in Gleason's previous two starts, with a 27-24 win over EMU and a 42-35 loss to Bowling Green.

For whatever it's worth, Gleason played well against those poor defenses, with PFF grades above 83.0 in each. Because of that sample and because Finn's showing in the last game so deeply tanked his own PFF grade, Gleason actually has a higher season-long PFF grade. Do not take that to mean Gleason is better. He is not.

If this ends up being Harris vs. Gleason, Toledo and Ohio's running game and passing games each downgrade. Ohio's passing game falls off a shelf, and its running game slightly downgrades, while Toledo's falls a bit in each category and is susceptible to greater variance.

Earlier meeting: Toledo-Ohio did not play in the regular season.

Boise State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State | Boise, ID

Boise State was without WR Stefan Cobbs and TE Riley Smith in Friday's win over Utah State with undisclosed injuries. And then, during the game, S Tyreque Jones was carted off the field with his own undisclosed injury.

All three are starters. We don't have additional information on their respective statuses, but Cobbs and Smith should be considered iffy, with Jones considered doubtful.

Boise State has won three straight and seven of eight. The Broncos' season was revived when they fired OC Tim Plough and waved goodbye to veteran starting QB Hank Bachmeier, who chose to retain a redshirt and enter the portal. BSU freshman QB Taylen Green has given the Broncos a dynamic dual-threat element behind center, spurring the renaissance along with interim OC Dirk Koetter.

Fresno State rides in on a seven-game winning streak, the last five of those with QB Jake Haener. Haener missed four-plus games earlier this season with an ankle injury. The Bulldogs are obviously a completely different team with a healthy Haener. Fresno blasted bowl-bound Wyoming 30-0 last weekend.

Earlier meeting: Boise State whipped Fresno State 40-20 on Oct. 9 in Boise, the venue where this game will be played. But there's a huge difference between that game and this one: FSU QB Jake Haener is back and fully healthy now. FSU QB2 Logan Fife went 14-of-23 for 134 yards with two INT in the regular-season loss. That setback dropped Fresno State to 1-4. The Bulldogs have won seven straight since, setting the stage for the rematch. Fresno will be motivated to send Haener out as a winner in his last conference game. While the new-look Broncos seek to establish their dominance anew.

TCU (-2.5) vs. Kansas State | Arlington, TX

TCU star WR Quentin Johnston missed Saturday's win over Iowa State with his ankle injury, but HC Sonny Dykes said after the game that Johnston could have played. “We were gonna try to save him if we could,” Dykes said, referring to the Big 12 title game.

Johnston, who also missed the win over Baylor the previous week with the injury, would appear to be all systems go for a return this weekend. The Horned Frogs had two key offensive contributors with health issues that complicated their game-week status against the Cyclones – TCU RB Kendre Miller and starting WR Derius Davis.

Miller suffered a minor undisclosed injury against Baylor, a game Davis missed with his own undisclosed injury. Miller led the team in rushing against ISU with 72 yards, a TD on 15 carries, and a 12-yard reception. Davis, a speed merchant, played limited snaps and finished with one catch for 14 yards.

TCU mocked the idea of a letdown spot once again, blasting Iowa State 62-14. It was another impressive showing by TCU's underrated defense. The Horned Frogs only out-gained Iowa State by 47 yards, but the defense generated three turnovers and held ISU to 1-of-3 fourth-down conversions. Coming into the game, Iowa State HC Matt Campbell hadn't lost by more than 17 points since his second year at the school, and his defense was allowing only 16.5 PPG.

Kansas State has turned the offensive keys over to QB Will Howard following Adrian Martinez's lower-body injury. Howard has proved to be a big upgrade as a passer, though he doesn't have Martinez's wheels.

This is technically a neutral-site game, but TCU has a huge geographic advantage. AT&T Stadium is roughly 20 miles from TCU's campus in Fort Worth.

Earlier meeting: TCU overcame an 18-point deficit on Oct. 22 to beat Kansas State 38-28. Kansas State, which entered that game dealing with injuries, lost starting QB Adrian Martinez on its second drive and then briefly lost QB2 Will Howard in the second half (KSU QB3 frosh Jake Rubley threw an interception on his only pass). Howard played well in relief, going 13-of-20 for two TD and one INT. Howard's play will obviously be a key factor in this game. TCU's offense was humming against a strong K-State defense – TCU threw for 280 yards and ran for 215, out-gaining K-State by 105 yards in sum while controlling the ball for a little over 16 minutes more.

Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina | Charlotte, NC

Clemson heads into the ACC title game with a quarterback controversy and off a shocking loss to South Carolina. Clemson HC Dabo Swinney, trying to get in front of that controversy, said QB DJ Uiagalelei will start against North Carolina.

Uiagalelei struggled mightily in the 31-30 loss to the Gamecocks, going 8-of-29 for 99 yards with one touchdown and one interception. As a team, Clemson had a negative turnover margin for the fifth-straight game.

But while Clemson pulled Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik against Syracuse and Notre Dame earlier this year, it allowed DJU to finish the game against South Carolina. Though fans have clamored for the five-star Klubnik all season, he's only thrown 22 passes for 98 yards all season.

At least Clemson knew Uiagalelei's play could be an issue this year. The Tigers' defense was supposed to be rock-solid. It hasn't been. Clemson's defense continues to get gouged for big plays – last week, it gave up five 20-plus yard passes to Spencer Rattler en route to Rattler's 360 aerial yards.

Clemson WR Beaux Collins was able to return from his shoulder injury Saturday versus South Carolina but was pulled after playing in the first half and finished the game in street clothes on the sideline. Collins posted two catches for 65 yards. It's unclear at this time if the sophomore receiver will be able to play in the ACC Championship Game this weekend.

His teammate, Clemson S RJ Mickens, won't enter the game until after halftime. Mickens was ejected for targeting in the third quarter against South Carolina. He is disqualified from the first half of the following game by rule.

Clemson's opponent, North Carolina, also limps in. UNC started 9-1 – the only loss was to Notre Dame – but has dropped their last two games. First, the Heels were stunned 21-17 at home by Georgia State. And then, last Friday, UNC lost 30-27 to NC State's fourth-string quarterback in 2OT. Can the young Tar Heels pull out of their tailspin under the bright lights?

Earlier meeting: Clemson-UNC did not play in the regular season.

Michigan (-16.5) vs. Purdue | Indianapolis, IN

Michigan RB Blake Corum only had two carries for six yards – playing with a bulky knee brace – in Saturday's shocking 45-23 beatdown of Ohio State. Corum injured the knee the week before against Illinois and had been considered questionable to play.

HC Jim Harbaugh said in the lead-up that Corum's knee was structurally sound. That remains the case after Saturday's game. But I was told on Monday not to expect to see Corum on Saturday against Purdue. Not because Corum aggravated anything Saturday, but because he's still in a lot of pain, and there's little reason to press it in this spot.

That's the somewhat bad news on the Michigan side. The good news is that it appears Michigan escaped the Ohio State game without any major injuries. I was told that the Wolverines appear to be “healthier [as a team] than they were a week ago.”

A part of that is due to the clarity of RB2 Donovan Edwards' thumb injury. Edwards missed the Illinois and most of the Nebraska games the week before. Like Corum, Edwards appeared not to be 100 percent heading into the game.

Edwards' right thumb was heavily taped-up in the pregame – a concerning injury for Michigan's preferred pass-catching back. But Edwards went on to light up Ohio State with 216 rushing yards and two TD. Edwards had a pair of long TD runs in the second half that sucked the life out of the building and the opponent. It would appear that Edwards, last week's B1G Player of the Week, is going to be counted on as the bell cow again this week.

Michigan QB JJ McCarthy's play against Ohio State was a very positive development for Michigan's CFP viability. Against a good Buckeyes pass defense, McCarthy had a career-best game, throwing for 263 yards with four total TD. McCarthy looked comfortable standing in the pocket and letting it rip downfield. He was also fearless, leaving the pocket when the opportunity to steal yards arose.

On the Purdue side, starting RB Devin Mockobee was able to play in Saturday's 30-16 win over Indiana, a week after he suffered a head injury early in the win over Northwestern. Mockobee looked fully healthy, rushing for 99 yards and a TD on 15 carries.

  
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