Here are the best bets for season win totals (with DraftKings odds):
Matt Youmans
Alabama Over 10.5 (-265)
When betting Over a high win total, a handicapper must have lots of faith in the coach, quarterback and defense. Alabama is as good as it gets in all three areas. Nick Saban is not a coach who plans fun field trips to Disney World. Saban is demanding and knows how to motivate a team that’s a big favorite, and his no-letdown style will be needed because the Crimson Tide could be favored by two touchdowns or more in all 12 games. Bryce Young is arguably the best quarterback in the country, and linebacker Will Anderson is arguably the nation’s best defensive player. The Tide should not have too much trouble sweeping road games against Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Mississippi. Most books have posted this total at 11.5, which is probably the right number, so allow for a margin of error and lay this high price on the 10.5 posted at DraftKings. An injury to Young is the only potential problem. If Saban gets upset once, that’s OK, but anything less than an 11-1 re cord would be a major disappointment for an Alabama team that’s loaded and should run the table.
Colorado Under 3 (-110)
One way a bad football team can overachieve is by winning a couple of cupcake games early and building confidence. Colorado’s schedule could have the opposite effect because not one “W” can be assumed. The Buffaloes face three quality nonconference opponents — TCU, Air Force and Minnesota — and the latter two games are on the road. The Pac-12 schedule is not much easier. Colorado does not get to face two of the league’s weakest links — Stanford and Washington State — and must play at Arizona, which might be the weakest team. There are a couple of winnable home games against Arizona State and California, but I don’t see four wins on this schedule. It’s about to go from bad (4-8 last season) to worse for the Buffaloes, who project as underdogs in at least 11 games and probably all 12. I bet this Under 3.5 (-135) yet still will recommend the play at 3. It might take a miracle for Colorado to win four games, and coach Karl Do rrell is no magician.
Fresno State Over 8.5 (-130)
Jeff Tedford is back from a brief retirement for his second run as Bulldogs coach. He guided Fresno to 10-4 and 12-2 records in 2017 and 2018 and now inherits a team with enough talent to post another double-digit win season. The key is the quarterback, senior Jake Haener, who’s the best in the Mountain West. Haener passed for 4,096 yards and 33 touchdowns last season while leading the Bulldogs to a 9-3 regular season that included road victories over UCLA and San Diego State. Eight starters return on offense, including four linemen, the top two wide receivers and running back Jordan Mims. Seven starters return on defense. The Bulldogs project as favorites in 10 games and will be underdogs on the road against USC (Sept. 17) and Boise State (Oct. 8). The back end of the schedule is soft and sets up the potential for a long winning streak. I have enough confidence in the Tedford-Haener combination to predict a 10-2 season for Fresno, although 9-3 is more realistic and that&rsq uo;s enough to get this Over the total.